100 high st portsmouth nh 03801

New Hampshire Craft Beer

2014.03.19 15:20 New Hampshire Craft Beer

Live free and brew. A community for everything beer and brewing related in New Hampshire.
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2023.04.01 04:49 glitterclitor It was worth it

It was worth it submitted by glitterclitor to BitLifeApp [link] [comments]


2023.04.01 03:39 mlucianoeze More than 75% packet loss on fresh OpenWrt install

Hello there. I've bought a new Linksys E8450 router and installed OpenWrt 22.03.3 with kernel 5.10.161 and no additional config. I want to clarify I AM A COMPLETE BEGINNER and bought this router just to learn a bit more about OpenWrt and hopefully have a highly tuned router for my home network.
With my fresh install I created a network for each radio interface (2.4GHz and 5GHz) and connected, everything works fine except it gets really slow. I ran some speed tests and some of them where OK and the others didn't even start to run, so I tried pinging speedtest.net that didn't run, and got this output:
$ ping speedtest.net PING speedtest.net (151.101.194.219) 56(84) bytes of data. 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=1 ttl=57 time=26.1 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=2 ttl=57 time=83.0 ms ... 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=32 ttl=57 time=27.8 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=33 ttl=57 time=28.6 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=34 ttl=57 time=28.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=35 ttl=57 time=28.5 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=36 ttl=57 time=26.2 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=37 ttl=57 time=28.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=38 ttl=57 time=27.7 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=39 ttl=57 time=29.9 ms ... 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=67 ttl=57 time=2988 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=68 ttl=57 time=1963 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=69 ttl=57 time=940 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=70 ttl=57 time=25.9 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=71 ttl=57 time=29.7 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=72 ttl=57 time=28.1 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=73 ttl=57 time=28.8 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=74 ttl=57 time=25.9 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=75 ttl=57 time=27.9 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=76 ttl=57 time=25.9 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=77 ttl=57 time=29.8 ms ... 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=105 ttl=57 time=1563 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=106 ttl=57 time=539 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=107 ttl=57 time=31.6 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=108 ttl=57 time=28.8 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=109 ttl=57 time=28.7 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=110 ttl=57 time=26.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=111 ttl=57 time=26.3 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=112 ttl=57 time=27.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=113 ttl=57 time=28.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=114 ttl=57 time=27.4 ms ... 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=148 ttl=57 time=1787 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=149 ttl=57 time=763 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=150 ttl=57 time=25.0 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=151 ttl=57 time=25.8 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=152 ttl=57 time=46.8 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=153 ttl=57 time=28.6 ms 64 bytes from 151.101.194.219 (151.101.194.219): icmp_seq=154 ttl=57 time=27.6 ms ^C --- speedtest.net ping statistics --- 154 packets transmitted, 38 received, 75.3247% packet loss, time 155864ms rtt min/avg/max/mdev = 24.996/302.004/2987.639/663.712 ms, pipe 3 
I also ran a mtr as it was suggested in some forums, and got this output:
$ sudo mtr -ezb4w -i 1.0 -c 240 8.8.8.8 Start: 2023-04-01T01:53:33+0200 HOST: ThinkPad Loss% Snt Last Avg Best Wrst StDev 1. AS??? OpenWrt.lan (192.168.1.1) 0.0% 240 2.4 17.1 1.0 154.7 25.6 2. AS??? ??? 100.0 240 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3. AS??? 10.0.0.1 74.6% 240 2.8 83.9 2.0 1260. 244.3 4. AS??? 172.16.8.161 74.2% 240 43.7 104.9 3.1 2057. 336.4 5. AS??? 10.220.99.7 74.2% 240 4.1 100.3 3.1 1973. 318.6 [MPLS: Lbl 3209 TC 0 S u TTL 1] 6. AS??? 10.220.121.178 74.2% 240 19.2 140.2 18.3 2011. 381.3 7. AS??? 10.220.107.40 73.8% 240 34.7 171.8 34.0 1928. 399.3 8. AS8708 81.196.118.208 73.8% 240 46.5 162.4 33.9 1848. 377.2 9. AS15169 74.125.119.226 73.3% 240 37.3 158.7 34.1 1764. 353.8 10. AS15169 74.125.242.161 73.3% 240 26.2 136.8 25.4 1681. 335.1 11. AS15169 74.125.37.87 73.3% 240 26.4 126.0 25.7 1597. 313.6 12. AS15169 dns.google (8.8.8.8) 74.2% 240 36.5 133.4 33.9 1514. 293.9 
I don't know really well what's mtr for, but as I said, I'm a complete begginer in networking. However, I'm a daily Linux user and feel confortable with terminals (I found opkg really easy to use).
I hope I can get some guidance on how to get this working, and of course I'm willing to provide more information if you need.
submitted by mlucianoeze to openwrt [link] [comments]


2023.04.01 00:47 pgt37 HOPE HAS BEEN RESTORED: FINALE

Demographics
Intended Major(s): Finance/Economics
Academics
Standardized Testing
Extracurriculars/Activities
List all extracurricular involvements, including leadership roles, time commitments, major achievements, etc.
  1. Competitive 5-month long program at BB Investment Bank
  2. Summer internship at another BB Investment Bank
  3. Captain/Member of Varsity sports team, helped raise over 7k (4yrs)
  4. ManageAssistant Coach of Girls Varsity sports team (2yrs)
  5. NHS Secretary helped raise over $500 (2yrs)
  6. Summer Business competition, Won 3rd Place
  7. Family Tutor (4yrs)
  8. Summer Marketing Internship with ride share startup
  9. Participated in a month-long mental health research study at T30 university
  10. Accepted into both Fly-in Programs at UPenn
Awards/Honors
List all awards and honors submitted on your application.
  1. Accepted into a nationally recognized internship program
  2. African American National Recognition Program
  3. NHS 2x
  4. Certifications in two 3D/2D modeling software programs
  5. Won 1st place for an event in a city-wide swim competition
  6. Certified Lifeguard and CPFirst Aid
Letters of Recommendation
  1. AP Lit teacheDE Professor wrote a 2pg rec letter (10/10)
  2. AP Physics 1 (7/10)
  3. Coach knows me personally (9/10)
Interviews
Essays
Decisions
Acceptances:
Waitlist:
Rejections:
Final Thoughts
submitted by pgt37 to collegeresults [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:58 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to u/bigbear0083 [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:57 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on WallStreetStockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead WallStreetStockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to WallStreetStockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:55 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketForums! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketForums. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketForums [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StocksMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StocksMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StocksMarket [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:54 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on EarningsWhispers! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead EarningsWhispers. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to EarningsWhispers [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:53 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on FinancialMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead FinancialMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to FinancialMarket [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:52 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on stocks! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Here are the most notable companies reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:51 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:49 bigbear0083 Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarketChat! I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this week, and are ready for the new trading week, month and quarter ahead. :)
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning April 3rd, 2023.

Stocks close higher Friday, Nasdaq notches best quarter since 2020: Live updates - (Source)

Stocks rose Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a volatile, but winning quarter that saw more Federal Reserve rate tightening and a mini-financial panic spurred on by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
The S&P 500 added 1.44% to close at 4,109.31, while the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.74% to end at 12,221.91. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 415.12 points, or 1.26%, closing at 33,274.15.
The market got a boost Friday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed a cooler-than-expected increase in prices. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes energy and food costs, rose 0.3% in February, less than the 0.4% expected by economists polled by Dow Jones.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up 7.03% and 16.77%, respectively, for the first quarter. It was the best quarter since 2020 for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The Dow ended the period with a 0.38% increase.
For the month, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have gained 3.51% and 6.69%, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, advanced 1.89% to end March.
But it hasn’t been a smooth ride. Stocks mounted a comeback in the latter part of March after the month began with the failure of two regional banks, a forced-takeover of Credit Suisse and a flight of deposits from smaller institutions. The government’s backstop of the deposits of SVB, as well as Signature Bank, and the setup of a special lending facility for other banks, helped stem the crisis.
Primary credit lending totaled $88.2 billion while banks took out $64.4 billion through the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program, according to Fed data released Thursday that covered the period from March 22-29. That total of $152.6 billion was down slightly from $164 billion the week before and a further sign the crisis was stabilizing as the month comes to an end.
The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (KRE) closed about 1% higher on Friday, continuing its comeback from the contagion lows.
Tech stocks were the big winner this month as investors rotated out of financials. The Technology Select SPDR ETF (XLK) added roughly 10% in March.
The recent rally is “helping to confirm the market’s perception that the problems that brought the market to a crisis of confidence could very well be contained,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
“The semiconductors, [which] have come to be viewed as an important bellwether for global growth, delivered a strong performance,” she added.

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

S&P Sectors for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE S&P SECTORS FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DJIA, S&P 500 & NASDAQ Higher 66.7% of the Time on First Trading Day of April

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac 2023, the first trading day of April is DJIA’s fourth weakest first trading day of all months based upon total points gained. However, looking back at the last 21 years, in the tables below, we can see DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ have all advanced 66.7% of the time (up 14 of last 21) with average gains of 0.16%, 0.24%, and 0.26% respectively. The Russell 2000 is modestly softer, but it has still been up more frequently than down. Five declines in the last ten years (the largest in 2020) have weighed on performance.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

April 2023 Almanac: DJIA’s Top Month

April is the final month of the “Best Six Months” for DJIA and the S&P 500. The window for our seasonal MACD sell signal opens on April 3, the first trading day of the month this year. From our Seasonal MACD Buy Signal on October 4, 2022, through the close on March 27, DJIA was up 6.98% and S&P 500 is up 4.92%. This is below historical average performance largely due to persistent inflation, a tightening Fed, regional bank uncertainties and Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. But before the “Worst Months” arrive, April’s solid historical track record could help reignite the market.
April 1999 was the first month ever to gain 1000 DJIA points. However, from 2000 to 2005, “Tax” month was hit declining in four of six years. From 2006 through 2021, April was up sixteen years in a row with an average gain of 2.9% to reclaim its position as the best DJIA month since 1950. DJIA’s streak of April gains ended in 2022’s bear market. April is now the second-best month for S&P 500 and fourth best for NASDAQ (since 1971).
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Typical pre-election year strength does bolster April’s performance since 1950. April is DJIA’s best month in pre-election years (+3.9%), second best for S&P 500 (+3.5%) and third best for NASDAQ (+3.6%). Small caps measured by the Russell 2000 also perform well (+2.9%) with gains in eight of eleven pre-election year April’s since 1979. S&P 500’s and NASDAQ’s single losing pre-election year April was in 1987.

Here Come the April Flowers

It was anything but smooth, but stocks are set to begin 2023 with a solid start, with the S&P 500 up more than 5% for the year with one day to go in the first quarter. Although we continue to hear how bad things are, we’d like to note that these gains came on the heels of a 7.1% gain for stocks in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most investors probably have no idea stocks have done so well, given the barrage of negative news out there.
Here’s a chart we’ve shared a lot, but it is playing out nicely. If you look at a four-year Presidential cycle, we are in the midst of the strongest period for stocks. In fact, historically, the second quarter of a pre-election year is up a solid 4.8% on average and higher 72.2% of the time. Given the overall negative sentiment, an economy that continues to defy the skeptics, and this positive seasonality, we’d be open to a continuation of the rally off the October lows last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Take one more look at the above. Last quarter was higher, making that 18 out of 19 times that stocks gained in the first quarter of a pre-election year.
Turning to April, turns out stocks have historically been higher this month during a pre-election year an incredible 17 out of 18 times since 1950, with only a 1.2% drop back in 1987, the only blemish. As you can see below, only January has a higher average return during a pre-election year, which played out this year with a huge 6.2% gain in January 2023. Why is April usually strong? It could be a combination of springtime buying, good riddance to winter, or putting tax refunds to work. But the bottom line is that this is something we’d rather know than ignore.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
But it isn’t just pre-election years when April does well. Since 1950, it is the second-best month (only November is better); for the past 10 years, it ranks fourth, and for the past 20 years, it has been the best month of the year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The elephant in the room is that April last year was terrible, with the S&P 500 down 8.8%, for the worst April since 1970. Of course, back then, the start of the war, higher inflation fears, a Fed just starting to hike, and economic worries lead to the historic drop.
We remain overweight stocks and expect the lowered expectations amid a better economy to have the potential to drive higher stock prices in 2023, with gains that could reach between 12-15% this year.

Sentiment Still Bearish...Or Is It?

The S&P 500 has made a press back up towards the high end of the past month's range this week, but sentiment has yet to reflect the moves higher in price. The past several weeks have seen the AAII sentiment survey come in a relatively tight range between the high of 24.8% on March 9th and a low of 19.2% the following week. That is in spite of the recent updates to monetary policy and turbulence in the banking industry. Today's reading was smack dab in the middle of that recent range at 22.5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Given there have not been any major developments with regard to sentiment, the record streak of below-average (37.55%) bullish sentiment readings has grown to 71 weeks.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While bullish sentiment was modestly higher this week rising 1.6 percentage points, bearish sentiment shed 3.3 percentage points to fall to 45.6%. That is only the lowest reading in three weeks as bearish sentiment has sat above 40% for all of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The predominant sentiment reading continues to be bearish. The bull-bear spread has been negative for six weeks in a row following the end of the record streak of negative readings in the bull-bear spread in February.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Taking into account other sentiment surveys, the AAII reading stands out as far more pessimistic at the moment. In the chart below, we show the readings of the AAII bull-bear spread paired with the same spread in the Investors Intelligence survey and the NAAIM Exposure index. Whereas the latter two surveys have basically seen readings return back to their historical averages, the AAII survey sits 1.6 standard deviations below its historical average. In other words, overall sentiment might not be as pessimistic as the AAII survey would imply.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Claims Spend Another Week Below 200K

Initial jobless claims took a step higher this week rising by 7K to 198K. With last week's number also going unrevised, claims have now been below 200K for 10 of the last 11 weeks. That being said, this week's reading was the highest since the 212K print in the first week of March.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Before seasonal adjustment, claims were once again higher rising by over 10K week over week to 223K. Although that is not a concerningly high reading nor is it a large jump, the increase was peculiar in that it went against expected seasonal patterns. Prior to this year, jobless claims have only risen week over week in the current week of the year 16% of the time; the most recent instance prior to 2020 (right as claims surged at the onset of the pandemic) was in 2017.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Although initial jobless claims modestly deteriorated, it has not exactly been a worrying increase as claims remain at historically healthy levels. The same goes for continuing claims. This week saw continuing claims rise by a modest 4K to 1.689 million. That is only the highest level since the end of February when claims totaled over 1.7 million.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Short Interest Update

Although equities broadly are starting the new week higher, the most heavily shorted stocks are trading lower today. In the chart below, we show the relative strength of an index of the 100 most heavily shorted stocks versus the Russell 3,000 since January 2021 (the peak of the meme stock mania). Overall, the past couple of years since that period have consistently seen heavily shorted names underperform as seen through the downward trending line below. Although heavily shorted names saw some outperformance in January, they are making new lows.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
On Friday, the latest short interest data as of mid-March was released by FINRA. Overall, there has not been too much of a change in short interest levels with the average reading on short interest as a percentage of float of Russell 3,000 stocks rising by 5 bps since the start of the year to 5.8%.
Prior to the changes to industry classifications that went into effect one week ago, the formerly labeled "retailing" industry consistently held the highest levels of short interest. Now, it is the Consumer Discretionary Distribution and Retail industry in the top spot with an average short interest level of 12.7%. That is up from 12.5% coming into the year and is multiple percentage points higher than the two next highest industries: Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences (9.36%) and Autos (9.18%). In spite of the recent bank closures, the banking industry actually has the lowest average levels of short interest. That being said, the latest data as of March 15th would have only accounted for a few days following the collapse of SVB. As such, the next release scheduled for April 12th with end-of-month data will provide a better read on the recent banking trouble's impact on short interest levels.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
In the table below, we show the individual Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest levels of short interest as of the March 15th data. The sole two stocks with more than half of shares sold short are both Health Care names: Design Therapeutics (DSGN) and Allogene Therapeutics (ALLO). Both have seen short interest levels rise mid-single digits year to date. Other notables with high levels of short interest include some names that were briefly in vogue in recent years like Carvana (CVNA) and Beyond Meat (BYND). While short interest levels remain elevated, those are also two of the stocks listed below that have seen the largest declines in short interest this year which is likely due to solid appreciation in their stock prices. Only Marathon Digital (MARA) has seen a larger drop with its short interest level falling 11.4 percentage points since the end of last year after the stock more than doubled year to date. We would also note another crypto-related name, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is on the list and has been the second-best performer of the Russell 3,000 stocks with the highest short interest.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Commercial Bank Deposits Down a Record 3.33% YoY

The Federal Reserve's FRED data on commercial bank deposits was just updated through the week of 3/15. From the prior week, deposits fell roughly $100 billion, or about 0.56% from $17.6 trillion down to $17.5 trillion. A week-over-week decline of 0.56% is nothing out of the norm, although it was the biggest decline in percentage terms since last April when deposits fell 0.6% during the week of 4/20.
What is out of the norm is the drop we've seen in bank deposits over the last year. Prior to 2023, the largest year-over-year decline we'd ever seen in bank deposits was a 1.58% drop back in September 1994. That record drop was broken earlier this year when we got a reading of -1.61% during the week of 2/1. Since 2/1, the year-over-year decline has only gotten worse. As of the most recent week (3/15), the year-over-year decline stands at -3.33%.
Below is a chart showing the year-over-year change in commercial bank deposits using data from FRED. What stands out the most is not just that we're now at record YoY lows, but that it's coming after what had been record YoY increases in deposits. Remember, after COVID hit, the government deposited cash into the bank accounts of Americans multiple times.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Below is a look at the absolute level of commercial bank deposits over the years going back to 1974 when FRED's data begins. During the COVID recession from March through May 2020, bank deposits increased roughly $2 trillion. As you can see in the chart, we've never seen a spike anywhere near as large over such a short period of time. Notably, though, deposits kept on running higher for the next two years, rising another $2.8 trillion by the time they peaked at $18.16 trillion in mid-April 2022. That peak came a month after the Fed's first rate hike of the current tightening cycle, and since then we've seen deposits fall about $650 billion from their highs. Given how elevated deposits remain above pre-COVID levels, there's no reason to think they won't fall further unless banks really step up the interest they're paying on deposits given a Fed Funds rate of 5%.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Pending Home Sales Better But Still Weak

As we noted on Twitter earlier, Pending Home Sales for the month of February came in better than expected, rising by 0.8% compared to forecasts for a 3.0% decline. Wednesday's report also marked the first string of back to back to back positive and better-than-expected readings since the second half of 2020. While the increases are welcomed, we would note that on a y/y basis, Pending Home Sales remain depressed. Relative to a year ago, February Pending Home sales declined 21.1% which is actually an improvement from late last year when they were down over 30% for three straight months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
A 20%+ y/y decline in Pending Home Sales is not unprecedented, but it isn't common either. Prior to the current period, the only other times they were down over 20% were in the early months of COVID and in a handful of other months during and immediately after the financial crisis. What has been unprecedented about the current period is the fact that Pending Home Sales has been down 20%+ for nine straight months! Going back to 2002, there was never another period where Pending Home Sales were down 20%+ or more for even three months let alone nine!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending March 31st, 2023

(CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 4/2/23

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED.)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
($SAIC $CAG $LW $AYI $STZ $FLGC $MSM $OCX $DLO $RPM $LEVI $SMPL $LNN $APLD $SCHN $EGY $IONM $KRUS $GNLN $SGH $RELL $WDFC $FRLN $SNAX $ZENV $CLIR $RGP $SLP $SDRL $NG)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES FOR THE NEXT 3 WEEKS!)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.)

(T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.) (T.B.A. THIS WEEKEND.).

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?

Join the Official Reddit Stock Market Chat Discord Server HERE!

I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarketChat. :)
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarketChat [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 23:05 Captain_McLuhvin Blackstone Oil Analysis at 42k miles

Blackstone Oil Analysis at 42k miles
I’ve been really nervous about how the oil has been doing in my car so I finally submitted a sample to Blackstone Labs
submitted by Captain_McLuhvin to WRX [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 22:50 Then_Marionberry_259 MAR 31, 2023 PNPN.V POWER NICKEL ANNOUNCES CLOSING OF 1ST TRANCHE OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT

MAR 31, 2023 PNPN.V POWER NICKEL ANNOUNCES CLOSING OF 1ST TRANCHE OF PRIVATE PLACEMENT
https://preview.redd.it/ajq95dlp05ra1.png?width=3500&format=png&auto=webp&s=59763ae6449825cc9afef1cd7ad469c70d34159e
TORONTO, ON / ACCESSWIRE / March 31, 2023 / Power Nickel Inc. (the "Company" or "Power Nickel") (TSXV:PNPN)(OTCQB:PNPNF)(Frankfurt:IVVI) is pleased to announce it has closed the 1st tranche of the private placement previously announced on March 13, 2023 (the "Offering") for 3,418,000 flow-through units (each, an "FT Unit") of the Company, at a price of $0.50 per FT Unit, for gross proceeds of CAD $1,709,000. The Company has received conditional TSX Venture Exchange ("TSXV") approval for the Private Placement.
"We are pleased to close the first Tranche of our previously announced $5,000,000 Private Placement. We expect to close the transaction balance in the next week, " said Power Nickel CEO Terry Lynch. "Once again, we have benefited greatly by having our project in Quebec, where very favorable incentives exist for Critical Mineral projects like our NISK Nickel Sulfide project at Nemaska." Lynch commented further, "Quebec, Canada is the World's leading jurisdiction for exploration for Critical Minerals. This was further cemented by the recent Quebec and Canadian budgets, which provide substantial incentives to explore Critical Minerals and build mines. We look forward to utilizing these incentives to build the world's first Carbon Neutral Nickel Mine at Nemaska".
Each FT Unit is composed of one common share of the Company that qualifies as a "flow-through share" (each, an "FT Share") for purposes of the Income Tax Act (Canada) (the "ITA"), and one-half of one transferable non-flow-through common share purchase warrant (each whole, being a "Warrant"). Each Warrant is exercisable into one non-flow-through common share (each a "Warrant Share") at an exercise price of $0.50 per Warrant Share for five years from the date of issuance. All securities issued under the Private Placement are subject to a four-month and one-day statutory hold period.
The Warrants are subject to an acceleration clause that entitles the Company to provide notice (the "Acceleration Notice") to holders that the Warrants will expire 30 days from the date the Company provides the Acceleration Notice. The Company can only provide the Acceleration Notice if the closing price of the Company's Common Shares on the TSXV is equal to or greater than $1.00 for 10 consecutive trading days. The Acceleration Notice can be provided at any time after the statutory hold period and before the expiry date of the Warrants.
The Company intends to use the gross proceeds from the sale of the FT Shares for exploration activities on the Company's NISK property located in Quebec and to incur eligible Canadian exploration expenses, within the meaning of the ITA, that will qualify for the federal 30% Critical Mineral Exploration Tax Credit.
The Company paid finder's fees of $102,500 in connection with the closing of the first tranche of the Offering. It issued 205,080 broker warrants enabling the broker to purchase each unit for $.50 until September 30, 2024.
Early Warning Disclosure
In the context of the Offering and as a part of a structured flow-through share arrangement, Critical Elements Lithium Corporation ("CRE") acquired 948,230 Units at a price of $0.25 per Unit from initial subscribers.
Immediately before closing the Offering, CRE owned and controlled 12,051,770 common shares, representing approximately 10.03% of the outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis. Immediately following to the closing of the Offering, CRE now beneficially owns and controls 13,000,000 common shares representing approximately 10.5% of the outstanding common shares on a non-diluted basis and 10.8% of the outstanding common shares on a partially-diluted basis.
CRE proceeded with the aforementioned acquisition for investment purposes and to maintain its equity participation in the Company in accordance with an option agreement relationship between CRE and the Company dated December 22, 2020 (the "Agreement"). In accordance with applicable securities laws, CRE may, from time to time and at any time, acquire additional shares of the Company in the open market or otherwise. It reserves the right to dispose of any or all of its shares in the open market or otherwise at any time and from time to time and to engage in similar transactions with respect to the shares, the whole depending on market conditions, the business, and prospects of the Company and other relevant factors.
Pursuant to the Agreement, CRE was granted a participation right in the securities of the Company to the extent that its equity participation is not less than 5% of the issued and outstanding Shares of the Company]. Such participation right grants CRE the right to participate in any public offering, private placement or otherwise (with exception to Shares issued by the Company pursuant to warrants and incentive stock options outstanding as at December 22, 2020, or share issuance commitments to Granby Gold Inc.) in such amounts as to allow CRE to maintain a percentage ownership interest in the Shares that is the same as CRE's equity participation percentage as at the close of the last equity financing of the Company.
information contained under the heading "Early Warning Disclosure" contained in this news release is being issued in accordance with National Instrument 62-103 - The Early Warning System and Related Take-Over Bid and Insider Reporting Issues in connection with the filing of an early warning report. The early warning report respecting the acquisition will be filed on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval ("SEDAR") at www.sedar.com under the Company's profile. To obtain a copy of the early warning report filed by CRE, please contact Nathalie Laurin, CFO of Critical Elements Lithium Corporation, at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]).
About Power Nickel Inc. Power Nickel is a Canadian junior exploration company focusing on high-potential copper, gold, and battery metal prospects in Canada and Chile.
On February 1, 2021, Power Nickel (then called Chilean Metals) completed the acquisition of its option to acquire up to 80% of the Nisk project from Critical Elements Lithium Corp. (CRE: TSXV)
The NISK property comprises a large land position (20 kilometers of strike length) with numerous high-grade intercepts. Power Nickel is focused on expanding its current high-grade nickel-copper PGE mineralization Ni 43- 101 resource with a series of drill programs designed to test the initial Nisk discovery zone and to explore the land package for adjacent potential Nickel deposits.
Highlights
Recent assay results from the current drill program at the Nisk deposit continue to return high-grade Ni-Cu- Co sulfide and PGE mineralization.
Significant results from this batch of assays include:
40.3m @ 0.88% Ni, 0.56% Cu, 0.06% Co, 1.64 ppm Pd and 0.15 ppm Pt (PN-22-009)
Including:
25.86m @ 1.17% Ni, 0.80% Cu, 0.08% Co, 1.46 ppm Pd and 0.23 ppm Pt
Power Nickel announced on June 8th, 2021, that an agreement had been made to complete the 100% acquisition of its Golden Ivan project in the heart of the Golden Triangle. The Golden Triangle has reported mineral resources (past production and current resources) in a total of 130 million ounces of gold, 800 million ounces of silver, and 40 billion pounds of copper.(Resource World) This property hosts two known mineral showings (Gold ore and Magee), and a portion of the past-producing Silverado mine, which was reportedly exploited between 1921 and 1939. These mineral showings are described to be Polymetallic veins that contain quantities of silver, lead, zinc, plus/minus gold, and plus/minus copper.
Power Nickel is also 100 percent owner of five properties comprising over 50,000 acres strategically located in the prolific iron-oxide-copper-gold belt of northern Chile. It also owns a 3-per-cent NSR royalty interest on any future production from the Copaquire copper-molybdenum deposit, which was sold to a subsidiary of Teck Resources Inc. Under the terms of the sale agreement, Teck has the right to acquire one-third of the 3-per-cent NSR for $ 3 million at any time. The Copaquire property borders Teck's producing Quebrada Blanca copper mine in Chile's first region.
For further information, please contact: Mr. Terry Lynch, CEO 647-448-8044, [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) Power Nickel Inc. The Canadian Venture Building 82 Richmond St East, Suite 202 Toronto, ON
Neither the TSX Venture Exchange nor its Regulation Services Provider (as that term is defined in the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange) accepts responsibility for the adequacy or accuracy of this release.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This news release contains certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements" with respect to the Company within the meaning of applicable securities laws. Forward-looking statements are statements that are not historical facts and are generally, but not always, identified by the words "expects", "plans", "anticipates", "believes", "intends", "estimates", "projects", "potential", "indicates", "opportunity", "possible" and similar expressions, or that events or conditions "will", "would", "may", "could" or "should" occur. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance, are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results or realities may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Such material risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the Company's ability to raise sufficient capital to fund its planned activities at the NISK Property and for general working capital purposes; the timing for proposed closing of the Private Placement; the timing and costs of future activities on the Company's properties, including preparing the Amended Technical Report; maintaining its mineral tenures and concessions in good standing; changes in economic conditions or financial markets; the inherent hazards associates with mineral exploration and mining operations; future prices of metals; changes in general economic conditions; accuracy of mineral resource and reserve estimates; the potential for new discoveries; the ability of the Company to obtain the necessary permits and consents required to explore, drill and develop the projects and if obtained, to obtain such permits and consents in a timely fashion relative to the Company's plans and business objectives for the projects; the general ability of the Company to monetize its mineral resources; and changes in environmental and other laws or regulations that could have an impact on the Company's operations, compliance with environmental laws and regulations, dependence on key management personnel and general competition in the mining industry. Forward-looking statements are based on the reasonable beliefs, estimates, and opinions of the Company's management on the date the statements are made. Except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in the event that management's beliefs, estimates or opinions, or other factors should change.
SOURCE: Power Nickel Inc.
View source version on accesswire.com: https://www.accesswire.com/746911/Power-Nickel-Announces-Closing-of-1st-Tranche-of-Private-Placement

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2023.03.31 22:41 priyansh9 Indian Startup Bro gets dreams crushed

At the bottom of the post, I've attached a reflection detailing my thoughts and feelings.
Demographics
Intended Major(s): Business, Entrepreneurship
Academics
Standardized Testing
Extracurriculars/Activities
  1. Founder, CEO of a business. Manufacturing and selling NFC technology-embedded business cards. $12,500+ revenue. Innovation Fellow for the Harvard- Crimson Youth Entrepreneurship Society’s inaugural cohort.
  2. Founder of a not-for-profit ed-tech org. Curated modules and articles on personal finance, taxation, investing, entrepreneurship, and more. 1,000+ members from 23 countries. Collaborated with 3MNCs. Launched an exclusive crypto token for the members: Stock Early ($SE)
  3. Author of a 75-page book on ‘how to startup’ for other budding high school entrepreneurs by providing anecdotes from my experience of managing two profitable businesses as a student. Sold over 300 copies.
  4. World Scholar's Cup (debating, quizzing, essay writing competition): Represented India at the Tournament of Champions at Yale. Regional Round 1st place. Global Finals top 100.
  5. Soccer: National-level player, varsity team captain. Best Player award at national games. Captained the state's only club in the tier-1 youth league.
  6. Environmental Service: 3 Fundraisers. Raised $10,000+, helped 10+ restaurants in the city transition from plastic cutlery to sustainable cutlery. helped 1,800+ families during the first wave of covid.
  7. Summer Programmes: 1. Babson Summer Study Program on a full tution scholarship. 2 Ivy Early Entrepreneur Summer Program.
  8. Clubs: 1. Founder of the Fintech Club: taught a summer program on blockchain financial modeling to 100+ students. 2. President of Finance and Business Club (largest school club: 300+ members)
  9. Student Investment Fund: founding member and senior investment officer (cryptocurrencies). Asia's first high school SIF. traded $20,000+
  10. Founder, CEO of a semi-professional gaming clan. national accolades.
Other ECs: Chairperson at MUNs, TEDx organising team core member, Atheltics, School council member, freelance video editor and web developer.
Awards/Honors
  1. 2 Gold and 2 Silver Medals in Essay Writing and Debating while representing India at the World Scholars Cup Tournament of Champions and Global Rounds. (1/1000+ teams)
  2. Babson College Summer Study Financial Aid Scholarship Award: Admitted to Babson College's Summer Study Program for Entrepreneurship (class of 2022) with a full program tuition scholarship award.
  3. Most Innovative Idea Award at TiE Rajasthan Business Competition: Won the Most Innovative Idea award for an Ed-Tech platform that fights economic inequality. (1/100+ teams)
  4. FEELL 150 Changemaker: Given in recognition of my commitment to the progress of SDG goals set by the United Nations through Cardesta. (Given to 150 students from 1,50,000+ in India)
  5. Best Player Award in Football at the ISSO National Games: Best Player Award at India's annual national-level football tournament.
Letters of Recommendation
  1. Counsellor (7/10): knew me pretty well but i wasn't the sincerest student and i messed up a few times throughout the process. nevertheless, i believe she wrote a pretty good LoR.
  2. Econ. Teacher (9/10): one of her favourite students and always did pretty well in her class. she helped me take initiatives outside the class. developed a really good relationship with her.
  3. Business Teacher (6-7/10): one of the brightest performers in her class but only knew her for an year. was also frequently absent from her class because the subject came relatively easily to me and i used to invest the time elsewhere. might've stopped me from developing a better relationship with her.
Interviews:
Didn't get any. Babson and Georgetown waived off my interview???
Essays
Common App: 8/10 - Talked about falling short of my own expectations and failing at the biggest stage (tournament of champions of the world scholars cup at yale) and how it has shaped me today. ended with "Had I not failed so miserably back then, I wouldn't be here today, and I wish to fail again in the future. I wish to fail again so the next time I rise, I’ll be even more hungry and determined to achieve my goals." Extremely cliche topic I know, but my application wouldn't have been mine if it missed this part of my identity. i think it was pretty well-written and most people who read it loved it.
Supplementals:
Upenn (7/10) NYU (4/10): horrible essay. i dont know why i submitted it, i didn't even like it. probably my worst one. UC Berkeley (8/10). GMP Program essay (9/10): one of my favourite essays. talked about my experience with global business and tied it to haas' values. CMU (8/10): the third essay was my favourite one. other two were good but nothing special. U Mich (7/10). Ross (6/10) WashU (6-7/10) USC (6-7/10) Emory (8/10): wrote the second essay (the one w options) pretty well as it tied my academic interests with my personality and goals. UCLA (8/10) Georgetown (8.5/10): spent the longest time on these essays and really really liked them. Babson (10/10): did the video, talked about how I've experienced babson's social entrepreneurship spirit and how it has drawn me back to the campus.
I thoroughly enjoyed the essay writing process (I learned so much about myself!) and I'm pretty happy with most of my essays.
Decisions (indicate ED/EA/REA/SCEA/RD)
Acceptances:
Waitlists:
Rejections:
Additional Information:
Only applied to reaches (except babson) because it made financial sense to go full play only at the best business schools. Applied to some of the best business schools and a few safety schools in my home country as a backup.
Reflection:
Emory is a great school, and Goizueta is one of the best business schools in the country. I'd have the opportunity to study my first choice major- Business. I know that I'll be fine there. I know that I'd probably be fine wherever I went. While, I'm extremely grateful for Emory, deep down, though, I can’t help but still feel disappointed.
I'm aware of the fact that I'm not the most qualfied candidate at any of these schools and they were all reaches for me, but its a little heartbreaking to see your dream fall apart. Over the last 3 years, I've made numerous sacrficies to be able to study in the united states, I switched schools in my junior year and joined one of the most competitive highschools in the country so I can have a higher chance of making it. I've spent my summers working on projects and was sleep deprived for most of junior and senior year. I wish I would've gotten into one of my top choices. Right now I can't help but feel I've failed everyone around me. Seeing some of my closest friends get into Stanford and Berkeley—friends with whom I’ve been since the beginnings of my journey —I can’t help but feel left behind. What hurts the most is how close I came, maybe a 1500+ on the SAT or a 43 on the IB would've made all the difference. The 3 waitlists hurt more than the rejections, especially Berkeley :(
But at the end of the day, I'm glad I went through this process. It's only the difficult matches that are worth playing. I know this failure is only going to make me stronger. As my common app essay goes, "I wish to fail again in the future. I wish to fail again so the next time I rise, I’ll be even more hungry and determined to achieve my goals." Well this was that failure, and I'm going to get through it, as a stronger man than before.
Finally, I still don't know where I'm going to spend the next 4 years of my life. I know I'm going to be fine wherever I go and since a big part of my dream to study in the United States has died I'm considering a few options in my home country which will be much much cheaper than Emory and make more finanical sense to me and my family. Nonetheless, I'll be committing to Emory for now as I wait for the rest of my decisions from my home country. 🦅🦅🦅
submitted by priyansh9 to collegeresults [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 22:00 taod86 Sigma TXL vs Jaws MINOTAURE 3 vs Norseraft Berserker

Hi everyone,
I'd like to pick your brain regarding my first packraft purchase. I would use it for long distance adventures (I live in Montreal so going down the length of the St Lawrence river is definitely on the radar) so paddleability is a concern. I also do a lot of bikepacking thus I am looking for a model that could accommodate a disassembled 15kg bike. Finally my characteristics: 1m87 male, 72kgs, budget under 1000 euros.
Currently I am hesitating between 3 models: the Sigma TXL, the Jaws MINOTAURE 3 and the Norseraft Berserker.
I favor the Sigma because of the longer profile which should provide a bit more speed as well as the way it deals with internal storage - it doesn't rely on waterproof zipper but on internal storage bags which reassures me in terms of durability. It is also the lighter of the three options. It doesn't have a spray deck but I figure that I could probably add one myself should the need arise. There seems to be plenty enough attachment points to secure the bag. Also I like the fact that I'd be able to take a friend for a ride from time to time even if it seems a bit short to be comfortable with two people.
The Berseker seems like the most rugged one but it is also the heaviest option. It is shorter and has a different profile than the Sigma. However it has the necessary attachment points, a spray deck, what seems to be a comfortable seat and the internal T-zip storage system.
Finally I am only considering the Jaws because someone is selling one second hand at a discounted price (750 euros) but I am a bit put off by the fact that the T-zip zippers seem to require high maintenance so I can't be 100% of their state after being cared for by someone else.
Any advice or opinion will be greatly appreciated! Thank you!
submitted by taod86 to packrafting [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 21:48 pkokkinis How is this spam message making it to the Inbox (headers attached)

My client has Office 365 E3, but they still get these crazy, obviously spam messages in their Inbox. Below are the headers. How would you stop these form coming in?


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submitted by pkokkinis to sysadmin [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 21:31 mi555trZ [Store] 300+ KNIVES AND GLOVES e.g. Slingshot, Snow Leopard, Tiger Strike, Cobalt Skulls, Turtle, Butterfly Autotronic MW & Slaughter MW ST , Skeleton Crimson Web FT, Karambit Lore MW & Autotronic MW & Vanilla, M9 Marble Fade ST & Lore FT & Crimson Web FT, Gut Sapphire, Falchion Emerald & many more

Taking csgo skins mainly (knives, gloves, aks, m4s, awps and so on). Anything as long as offer is good.
I don't update this list everyday, so I have many items which aren't listed here. Check if something interests you! Also, some of the items are on trade hold, for release date you can add me or check by yourself.
TRADE LINK: https://steamcommunity.com/tradeoffenew/?partner=35769104&token=J30wyEpy
Add me to talk here: https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197996034832

Keys from these buy outs aren't TF2 keys. I don't take Hydra keys either.

Gloves/wraps:
Gloves Slingshot FT 0.36 float - B/O 200 keys
Gloves Snow Leopard FT 0.36 float - B/O 170 keys
Gloves Snow Leopard FT 0.37 float - B/O 170 keys
Gloves Tiger Strike FT 0.32 float - B/O 150 keys
Wraps Cobalt Skulls FT 0.28 float - B/O 120 keys
Wraps Cobalt Skulls FT 0.35 float - B/O 120 keys
Gloves Turtle MW 0.13 float - B/O 100 keys
Gloves Field Agent FT 0.36 float - B/O 90 keys
Gloves Omega BS 0.73 float - B/O 90 keys
Gloves Crimson Weave FT 0.36 float - B/O 80 keys
Gloves Diamondback MW 0.13 float - B/O 70 keys
Gloves Lt. Commander FT 0.20 float - B/O 70 keys
Gloves Black Tie FT 0.35 float - B/O 60 keys
Gloves Scarlet Shamagh W 0.38 float - B/O 60 keys
Gloves Charred MW 0.13 float - B/O 60 keys
Gloves Mogul FT 0.18 float - B/O 60 keys
Gloves Mogul FT 0.21 float - B/O 60 keys
Gloves Imperial Plaid BS 0.55 float - B/O 55 keys
Wraps Slaughter WW 0.38 float - B/O 50 keys
Gloves Turtle FT 0.37 float - B/O 45 keys
Gloves Blood Pressure FT 0.37 float - B/O 45 keys
Gloves Turtle WW 0.39 float - B/O 40 keys
Gloves Mogul BS 0.53 float - B/O 35 keys
Gloves Snakebite MW 0.12 float - B/O 35 keys
Wraps Arboreal MW 0.12 float - B/O 35 keys
Gloves Case Hardened MW 0.12 float - B/O 35 keys
Gloves Diamondback FT 0.37 float - B/O 35 keys
Gloves Bronze Morph BS 0.73 float - B/O 30 keys
Gloves Buckshot MW 0.12 float - B/O 30 keys
Gloves Overtake FT 0.22 float - B/O 25 keys
Gloves Jaguar Queen FT 0.16 float - B/O 30 keys
Gloves Jaguar Queen FT 0.26 float - B/O 25 keys
Gloves Smoke Out BS 0.54 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Rezan FT 0.16 float - B/O 25 keys
Gloves Overtake WW 0.38 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Jaguar Queen WW 0.38 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Needle Point FT 0.16 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Case Hardened FT 0.16 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Case Hardened FT 0.33 float - B/O 17 keys
Gloves 3rd Company FT 0.35 flat - B/O 17 keys
Gloves Rezan WW 0.38 float - B/O 17 keys
Gloves Snakebite FT 0.16 float - B/O 20 keys
Gloves Snakebite FT 0.24 foat - B/O 17 keys
Gloves Unhinged FT 0.33 float - B/O 15 keys
Gloves Jaguar Queen BS 0.54 float - B/O 15 keys
Wraps Desert Shamagh FT 0.33 float - B/O 15 keys
Gloves Bronzed BS 0.46 float - B/O 14 keys
Wraps Duct Tape FT 0.24 float - B/O 14 keys
Gloves Yellow-banded BS 0.63 float - B/O 14 keys
Gloves Transport BS 0.68 float - B/O 14 keys
Gloves Emerald FT 0.26 float - B/O 14 keys
Wraps Duct Tape BS 0.47 float - B/O 14 keys
Wraps Duct Tape WW 0.37 float - B/O 14 keys
Gloves Unhinged BS 0.48 float - B/O 13 keys
Gloves Emerald BS 0.55 float - B/O 12 keys
Gloves Rattler FT 0.27 float - B/O 11 keys
Gloves Mangrove FT 0.15 float - B/O 11 keys

Knives and high tier items:
Butterfly Autotronic MW 0.09 float - B/O 450 keys
Karambit Lore MW 0.09 float - B/O 450 keys
Falchion Emerald FN 0.03 float - B/O 400 keys
Karambit Autotronic MW 0.13 float - B/O 350 keys
M9 Marble Fade FN ST 0.01 float - B/O 350 keys
Butterfly Slaughter MW ST 0.11 float - B/O 350 keys
Talon Fade FN 96% 0.02 float - B/O 350 keys
Skeleton Crimson Web FT 0.30 float - B/O 300 keys
Karambit Tiger Tooth FN 0.02 float - B/O 300 keys
Karambit Vanilla - B/O 300 keys
M9 Lore FT 0.26 float - B/O 300 keys
M9 Lore FT 0.28 float - B/o 300 keys
Gut Sapphire FN 0.03 float - B/O 250 keys
Bayonet Marble Fade FN 0.01 float - B/O 200 keys
Karambit Bright Water FN 0.04 float - B/O 190 keys
Flip Fade FN 99% 0.003 float - B/O 250 keys
Flip Lore FN 0.05 float - B/O 170 keys
Flip Lore FN 0.06 float - B/O 170 keys
Karambit Bright Water MW 0.11 float - B/O 170 keys
Ursus Fade FN 95% 0.007 float - B/O 170 keys
M9 Crimson Web FT 0.33 float - B/O 170 keys
M9 Crimson Web FT 0.36 float - B/O 170 keys
Stiletto Doppler MW P4 0.07 float - B/O 160 keys
M9 Freehand FN 0.05 float - B/O 160 keys
Karambit Freehand FT 0.37 float - B/O 160 keys
Karambit Bright Water FT 0.22 float - B/O 150 keys
Karambit Bright Water FT 0.33 float - B/o 150 keys
Stiletto Marble Fade FN 0.02 float - B/O 150 keys
Bayonet Doppler FN P1 0.02 float - B/O 150 keys
M9 Freehand MW 0.11 float - B/O 150 keys
Butterfly Safari Mesh FT 0.19 float - B/O 150 keys
Butterfly Forest Ddpat FT 0.26 float - B/O 150 keys
Stiletto Slaughter FN 0.03 float - B/O 140 keys
Flip Doppler FN P2 ST 0.03 float - B/O 140 keys
Nomad Vanilla - B/O 140 keys
Daggers Black Pearl FN 0.03 float - B/O 140 keys
Talon Slaughter FT 0.16 float - B/O 140 keys
Stiletto Doppler FN P1 0.007 float - B/O 140 keys
Stiletto Doppler FN P1 0.01 float - B/O 140 keys
M9 Damascus Steel FT 0.18 float - B/O 140 keys
Nomad Vanilla ST - B/O 140 keys
Flip Doppler FN P4 0.04 float - B/O 130 keys
M9 Bright Water FT 0.21 float - B/O 130 keys
M9 Blue Steel WW ST 0.43 float - B/O 130 keys
Stiletto Tiger Tooth FN 0.006 float - B/O 130 keys
Ursus Crimson Web MW 0.12 float - B/O 130 keys
Flip Lore MW 0.13 float - B/O 130 keys
Stiletto Slaughter MW 0.11 float - B/O 130 keys
Stiletto Vanilla - B/O 130 keys
Paracord Crimson Web MW 0.14 float - B/O 130 keys
M9 Urban Masked MW 0.09 float - B/O 120 keys
Karambit Urban Masked FT 0.36 float - B/O 120 keys
M9 Ultraviolet FT 0.37 float - B/O 120 keys
Stiletto Slaughter FT 0.19 float - B/O 110 keys
M9 Freehand WW ST 0.41 float - B/O 110 keys
Flip Doppler FN P1 0.03 float - B/O 110 keys
Paracord Slaughter FN ST 0.03 float - B/O 110 keys
M9 Stained WW 0.40 float - B/O 110 keys
Flip Tiger Tooth FN 0.03 float - B/O 110 keys
Karambit Safari Mesh BS 0.75 float - B/O 110 keys
M9 Night BS 0.49 float - B/O 100 keys
M9 Stained BS 0.71 float - B/O 100 keys
Ursus Slaughter FN 0.06 float - B/O 100 keys
Flip Autotronic MW 0.14 float - B/O 100 keys
Bowie Gamma Doppler FN P4 0.004 float - B/O 100 keys
Flip Slaughter MW 0.11 float - B/O 100 keys
M9 Forest Ddpat FT 0.29 float - B/O 100 keys
M9 Boreal Forest FT 0.16 float - B/O 100 keys
Talon Damascus Steel FT 0.37 float - B/O 100 keys
Huntsman Fade FN 84% 0.03 float - B/O 100 keys
M9 Safari Mesh FT ST 0.26 float - B/O 90 keys
Bowie Marble Fade FN ST 0.009 float - B/O 90 keys
Stiletto Crimson Web FT 0.36 float - B/O 90 keys
M9 Scorched FT 0.15 float - B/O 90 keys
Flip Lore FT 0.29 float - B/O 90 keys
Ursus Tiger Tooth FN 0.008 float - B/O 90 keys
Gut Fade FN ST 84% 0.01 float - B/O 85 keys
Paracord Slaughter MW ST 0.08 float - B/O 85 keys
Bayonet Black Laminate FT 0.31 float - B/O 85 keys
Ursus Vanilla - B/O 85 keys
Classic Crimson Web MW ST 0.13 float - B/O 85 keys
Nomad Blue Steel MW ST 0.13 float - B/O 80 keys
Flip Crimson Web FT 0.37 float - B/O 80 keys
Huntsman Marble Fade FN 0.007 float - B/O 80 keys
Classic Slaughter FT 0.15 float - B/o 80 keys
Bowie Doppler FN P1 0.03 float - B/O 80 keys
Daggers Fade FN 94% 0.008 float - B/O 80 keys
Falchion Autotronic FN 0.01 float - B/O 80 keys
Flip Autotronic FT 0.23 float - B/O 80 keys
Huntsman Gamma Doppler FN P3 0.02 float - B/O 80 keys
Falchion Doppler FN P1 0.03 float - B/O 80 keys
Huntsman Doppler FN P3 0.007 float - B/O 75 keys
Bowie Marble Fade FN 0.05 float - B/O 75 keys
Falchion Marble Fade FN 0.05 float - B/O 75 keys
Gut Autotronic FN 0.05 float - B/O 75 keys
Stiletto Case Hardened WW 0.44 float - B/O 70 keys
Huntsman Tiger Tooth FN ST 0.008 float - B/O 70 keys
Survival Slaughter MW 0.08 float - B/O 70 keys
Talon Urban Masked FT 0.16 float - B/O 70 keys
Nomad Blue Steel BS 0.87 float - B/O 70 keys
Daggers Doppler FN P4 0.03 float - B/O 68 keys
Flip Freehand MW 0.11 float - B/O 65 keys
Navaja Fade FN 93% 0.01 float - B/O 65 keys
Talon Forest Ddpat FT 0.19 float - B/O 63 keys
Paracord Case Hardened MW 0.14 float - B/O 62 keys
Gut Gamma Doppler FN P2 0.03 float - B/O 62 keys
Falchion Slaughter FN 0.05 float - B/O 61 keys
Stiletto Night MW 0.13 float - B/O 61 keys
Flip Autotronic BS 0.78 float - B/O 60 keys
Bayonet Rust Coat BS 0.66 float - B/O 60 keys
Bayonet Ultraviolet BS 0.55 float - B/O 60 keys
Bayonet Ultraviolet WW 0.38 float - B/O 58 keys
Bayonet Ultraviolet FT 0.19 float - B/O 58 keys
Bayonet Night FT 0.25 float - B/O 57 keys
Paracord Crimson Web WW 0.38 float - B/O 57 keys
Falchion Tiger Tooth MW 0.07 float - B/O 55 keys
Flip Case Hardened WW 0.42 float - B/o 55 keys
Flip Freehand FT 0.20 float - B/O 55 keys
Bayonet Safari Mesh MW 0.13 float - B/O 55 keys
Navaja Doppler FN P2 0.02 float - B/O 55 keys
Stiletto Ultraviolet WW 0.38 float - B/O 54 keys
Flip Black Laminate BS 0.74 float - B/O 54 keys
Falchion Vanilla ST - B/O 54 keys
Stiletto Rust Coat BS ST 0.51 float - B/O 53 keys
Ursus Ultraviolet FT ST 0.35 float - B/o 53 keys
Stiletto Rust Coat BS 0.54 float - B/O 53 keys
Bayonet Boreal FT 0.32 float - B/O 52 keys
Falchion Slaughter MW 0.11 float - B/O 52 keys
Flip Ultraviolet FT 0.20 float - B/O 52 keys
Daggers Doppler FN P3 0.007 float - B/O 51 keys
Daggers Marble Fade FN 0.006 float - B/O 50 keys
Navaja Doppler FN P1 0.03 float - B/O 50 keys
Flip Night FT 0.26 float - B/O 48 keys
Daggers Vanilla - B/O 48 keys
Ursus Blue Steel MW 0.11 float - B/o 48 keys
Bowie Black Laminate FN 0.04 float - B/O 47 keys
Ursus Ultraviolet FT 0.33 float - B/O 47 keys
Bowie Vanilla - B/O 47 keys
Falchion Lore WW ST 0.39 float - B/O 46 keys
Paracord Case Hardened WW 0.43 float - B/O 45 keys
Huntsman Black Laminate FT 0.28 float - B/O 43 keys
Flip Night BS 0.68 float - B/O 43 keys
Gut Autotronic FT 0.34 float - B/O 42 keys
Navaja Slaughter FN 0.05 float - B/O 41 keys
Gut Doppler FN P3 0.01 float - B/O 40 keys
Gut Tiger Tooth FN 0.06 float - B/O 38 keys
Paracord Blue Steel FT 0.28 float - B/O 38 keys
Paracord Case Hardened BS 0.81 float - B/O 38 keys
Flip Urban Masked FT 0.32 float - B/O 38 keys
Huntsman Ultraviolet MW 0.12 float - B/O 38 keys
Flip Scorched FT 0.35 float - B/O 38 keys
Gut Autotronic BS 0.83 float - B/O 37 keys
Flip Forest Ddpat FT 0.35 float - B/O 37 keys
Nomad Scorched FT 0.35 float - B/O 37 keys
Bowie Ultraviolet MW 0.14 float - B/O 37 keys
Flip Safari Mesh FT 0.35 float - B/O 37 keys
Gut Slaughter MW 0.13 float - B/O 36 keys
Bowie Night MW 0.10 float - B/O 36 keys
Huntsman Blue Steel MW 0.11 float - B/O 36 keys
Daggers Case Hardened MW 0.10 float - B/O 35 keys
Navaja Tiger Tooth FN 0.01 float - B/O 35 keys
Ursus Boreal Forest MW 0.08 float - B/O 35 keys
Ursus Blue Steel FT 0.35 float - B/O 34 keys
Survival Blue Steel WW 0.39 float - B/O 34 keys
Ursus Urban Masked FT 0.34 float - B/O 33 keys
Navaja Vanilla - B/O 33 keys
Classic Scorched MW 0.14 float - B/O 33 keys
Ursus Scorched MW 0.13 float - B/O 33 keys
Huntsman Damascus Steel FT 0.25 float - B/O 32 keys
Ursus Safari Mesh MW 0.12 float - B/O 32 keys
Gut Lore BS 0.59 float - B/O 32 keys
Bowie Black Laminate FT 0.20 float - B/O 32 keys
Daggers Autotronic MW 0.14 float - B/o 31 keys
Paracord Night FT 0.26 float - B/O 31 keys
Huntsman Freehand FT 0.26 float - B/O 31 keys
Daggers Case Hardened WW 0.40 float - B/O 31 keys
Survival Scorched BS ST 0.70 float - B/O 30 keys
Gut Bright Water FN 0.06 float - B/o 30 keys
Gut Damascus Steel MW 0.13 float - B/o 30 keys
Navaja Boreal MW ST 0.13 float - B/O 30 keys
Ursus Safari Mesh FT 0.35 float - B/o 29 keys
Huntsman Bright Water FT 0.20 float - B/O 28 keys
Gut Black Laminate MW 0.08 float - B/O 28 keys
Gut Ultraviolet MW 0.11 float - B/O 28 keys
Ursus Scorched FT 0.33 float - B/O 28 keys
Paracord Urban Masked WW ST 0.42 float - B/O 28 keys
Survival Urban Masked FT 0.36 float - B/O 28 keys
Falchion Stained MW 0.12 float - B/O 27 keys
Daggers Autotronic FT 0.26 float - B/O 27 keys
Bowie Forest Ddpat MW 0.13 float - B/O 27 keys
Huntsman Ultraviolet FT 0.35 float - B/O 27 keys
Gut Black Laminate FT 0.37 float - B/O 27 keys
Daggers Stained MW 0.08 float - B/O 27 keys
Navaja Damascus Steel FN 0.04 float - B/O 27 keys
Gut Crimson Web FT 0.19 float - B/O 27 keys
Huntsman Bright Water BS 0.46 float - B/o 26 keys
Daggers Black Laminate MW 0.12 float - B/O 26 keys
Daggers Damascus steel FT 0.20 float - B/O 25 keys
Huntsman Rust Coat BS 0.46 float - B/O 25 keys
Navaja Ultraviolet MW 0.12 float - B/O 25 keys
Daggers Freehand FT 0.30 float - B/O 25 keys
Navaja Crimson Web FT 0.28 float - B/O 25 keys
Bowie Rust Coat WW 0.43 float - B/O 25 keys
Paracord Safari Mesh FT 0.35 float - B/O 25 keys
Survival Scorched BS 0.68 float - B/O 25 keys
Falchion Scorched FT 0.22 float - B/o 24 keys
Navaja Blue Steel FT 0.36 float - B/O 24 keys
Bowie Rust Coat BS 0.59 float - B/O 24 keys
Navaja Blue Steel MW 0.12 float - B/O 23 keys
Daggers Ultraviolet BS 0.52 float - B/O 22 keys
Navaja Night MW 0.13 float - B/o 22 keys
Daggers Stained BS 0.73 float - B/O 22 keys
Daggers Bright Water FT 0.27 float - B/o 22 keys
Gut Freehand WW 0.42 float - B/o 22 keys
Navaja Damascus Steel FT 0.15 float - B/O 22 keys
Falchion Boreal BS ST 0.45 float - B/O 21 keys
Navaja Ultraviolet FT 0.16 float - B/o 21 keys
Navaja Damascus Steel WW 0.40 float - B/O 21 keys
Daggers Forest Ddpat FT 0.34 float - B/O 21 keys
Navaja Rust Coat BS 0.47 float - B/O 20 keys
Daggers Rust Coat BS 0.64 float - B/o 20 keys
Navaja Safari Mesh FT 0.30 float - B/O 18 keys
Navaja Urban Masked FT 0.28 float - B/O 18 keys
Navaja Boreal BS 0.67 float - B/O 18 keys
Navaja Safari Mesh BS 0.65 float - B/O 17 keys
Navaja Urban Masked BS 0.75 float - B/O 17 keys
submitted by mi555trZ to GlobalOffensiveTrade [link] [comments]


2023.03.31 20:22 Kentukkis How Faceit Ruins esports Dreams (#FaceitFIXit 2023). The cry of the soul of thousands of CIS players and not only

Hi, 1. FIRST OF ALL, I DECIDED TO WAIT A MONTH, BECAUSE AS YOU HOPEFULLY REMEMBER, BACK IN JANUARY OR SO, FACE IT BROKE THE NEWS THAT THEY WOULD BE TIGHTENING UP THEIR POLICY ON REGISTERING NEW ACCOUNTS, SUPPOSEDLY TO DEAL WITH BOOSTERS, SMURFS, NEWBIES, ABUSERS SKINNING MISSIONS, ETC... AND I WANTED TO SEE IF ANYTHING CHANGE OR NOT. And NOBODY SPOILER, NO, NOTHING HAS CHANGED.Absolutely, so all the things I'm going to say today THAT HASN'T CHANGED, AND IT FEELS WORSE.
  1. I had high hopes for the release of ANONS SOURCE 2 not so long ago, THAT THEY WOULD MAKE AN AWESOME AND COMPLETELY REDESIGNED MM, BUT AS FAR AS I CAN TELL, AT THE MOMENT THEY'RE STILL STILL KEEP THEIR RANK SYSTEM. NO ELO, MMR, OR ANYTHING ELSE. no new expanded chAllS for indiViduAl stAtiOnS THE NEXT TIME A NEW SCHOOL WILL BE SET UP TO MEASURE AN INDIVIDUAL'S SKILLS AND EVEN IF IT DOES, IT WON'T BE HAPPENING ANYTIME SOON, Therefore, according to ALL, FACEIT WILL SUSTAIN A MONOPOLISM IN ITS NICHE, AND THE OVERWHELMING NUMBER OF PLAYERS WHO WANT TO DEVELOP THE GAME WILL BE FORCED TO PLAY FACEIT, WHICH MEANS THAT THE PLATFORM WILL WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO BE IMPROVED.
UNFORTUNATELY, IT SEEMS THAT NO ONE IN THE MEDIA, BOTH IN THE CIS AND IN EUROPE, CARES, AS WELL AS IN EUROPE DOESN'T CARE, EVERYONE IS USED TO IT AND HAS PUT UP WITH WITH THE RULES OF THE PLATFORM. WELL, I CAN'T ACCEPT IT, BECAUSE I CAN SEE, OUR BELOVED PLATFORM IS SLOWLY DYING OUT, AND I WANT TO DO SOMETHING TO INFLUENCE ITS FUTURE DEVELOPMENT, EVEN IF IT'S JUST THROUGH SOME YOUTUBE VIDEOS. I'D BE VERY HAPPY IF. IF YOU COULD HELP SPREAD THE WORD THIS VIDEO ON FOREIGN RESOURCES LIKE REDDIT, SO WE CAN GET SOME COMMENTARY FROM FACEIT, AND THEN WE CAN REALLY MAKE A FACEIT GREAT AGAIN. THIS IS IT, HOPE YOU ENJOY IT!

FACEIT PREMIUM

Let's start with money. Any large and well-known resource lives first on investments that need to be beaten back to zero, and then begins to receive any income.
Referring to Wikipedia, the clear profit of Face It for 2020 was 2.2 million pounds. This is exact profit. I didn't find any more recent data, because Face It was sold to Arabs a year ago, who, as we know, don't really count money profit faceit
Therefore, I will be telling you about its income based on what I managed to find. The main source of Face It income is subscriptions to various regional hubs, such as ECL, CIS, NAVI and others. You know this without me.
But the most basic source of Face It income is a premium subscription. And let's see what advantages premium, that costs about 500 rubles(5,24«£»), gives us. premium
We have 15 different features. Me, as all of you, didn't even read them before, but now I decided to figure out what Faceit premium gives us. features
All of us take it only for the sake of three main benefits: to get missions to collect points; to be able to choose maps on which we want to play; and all 10 levels of Faceit
(I want to remind you that 10 levels are only 5-7% of the active audience of the platform) take premium in order to be able to play in the master league, and, as a result, get a chance to qualify for FPL-C and become PRO.
I.e. for the sake of the fourth bonus feature. All the other 12 features either do not carry any real benefits because they are already available to everyone even in a free Face It, or simply duplicate each other.
On paper each of these features look very nice and understandable. But in fact, people either abuse missions for skins, or try to qualify for FPL-C.
THAT'S IT! In all other cases, Face It premium is not needed at all.
If you think that by buying the premium and launching a separate premium match, you will protect yourself from boosters, toxic people or throwers, and find honest and equal match
then throughout this text I will harshly dispel your wet fantasies, because this text is completely based on Faceit premium.
I especially like this feature: elo and personal statistics. This piece of individual statistics that counts KR, KD and the percentage of headshot. stump
Do any of you really analyze your game using these charts from the 90s?
While we have a lot of third-party free resources that calculate your work with grenades, the impact in the winning rounds and even draw a heat map. scope gg
And all this is free. Well, I won't speak about the Faceit Enhancer extension. faceit enhancer

FPL / FPL-c HUBS

If refer to the advantages of Face It premium, then probably the most important thing for which people buy premium is the 4th feature: the opportunity to get into FPL and become a PRO player.
But in order to become a pro player, you need to get at least 3000 elo, then you have to play at least 8 matches a day for a whole month, and get into the top 100 players at the end of the month out of about 10 thousand people.
As you know, the average match in CS:GO lasts about 45-55 minutes. In fact, you need to spend a full working shift in the game on Face It, and this is seven days a week, to get the opportunity to play the most random qualification, in which only 2 the best, although no, not the best, but probably the luckiest people will receive the invite - no, not in FPL, but in FPL-C.
But in order to get into the same pro hub without the letter C, you again need luck and months of grind, and for someone years.
I don't know if you notice it, but I caught myself thinking that FPL and FPL-C are not considered as something prestigious anymore.
I will give you just one example on the basis of which I made such a conclusion. Aunkere, deko, pokanoname, dimaoneshot. Our CIS players who played in FPL and who were kicked out of these hubs. kicked players
Some of them were kicked under the pretext of complaints about their toxicity from recognized esports stars. Someone was kicked under the pretext that he was a weak player.
And someone qualified for FPL 3-4 times on their own, which proved their high level of skill, but who was kicked several times because, I don't even know how to call it, well, probably some kind of hazing, because a bunch of players just didn't like the person for personal reasons.
Deko: “Well, FPL, obviously, is bullshit, because everyone there tries to pretend to be a friend of each other, so that they just don't get complaints at them.
In fact, they all understand that someone is a cocksucker and so on. Also, if you are a beginner, you can immediately expect that either someone will lick your ass, or that someone will trash talk.
But anyway, if the person who is going to trash talk you is a friend with everyone, then you’ll be kicked, not him. That's why this league is funny.”
BUT! At the same time, FPL-C invites a player by skipping all qualifications and principles, who was almost caught red-handed playing with cheaters-radar hackers at a series of ESEA CASHCUP tournaments. questionable player
And who hasn't been removed from the hub for all these months. Read the post that I will leave in the description about this man. I can't call it anything but clowning. man..
Streamers with a large online are invited in FPL. And there are no questions, with good individual statistics, but who do not play in any at least semi-professional team.
I'm not arguing that inviting promising players to the pro-hub bypassing general qualifications is normal and even is correct in some way, but inviting streamers just for the sake of popularizing pro-hubs only as advertising, as for me, is not very honest.
After all, Face It is a kind of springboard to cybersport, but what do we have in the end?
If you are friends with pro-players or you are a streamer with a large online, then for you there are no rules that are written for everyone else. And this springboard for such people will be much higher.
Xant3r: “Recently, FPL-C has become a league where very few normal pros and normal players play.
Basically, people get there by invitations, and at the discretion of the administration. Well, in principle, they are being removed out the same way. There is no objective point of view, the players do not vote.
There are admins who decide everything. FPL-C used to be a good hub. Now it's just a bunch of players who play for, well, just for money and that's it.”

FBI \ KARMA

The average daily online on Face It is about 130-150 thousand players. Literally a year and a half ago, the average online was about 200 thousand people, which already shows the stagnation of the platform.
And I think towards the end of the text, you will begin to understand why people lose interest in Face It. But now I suggest focusing our attention on the system of karma and reports.
For the purchase of premium Face It gives us the opportunity to add 5 people to the blacklist. Do you understand? 5 people per 150 thousandth platform.
We have the FBI system that makes conclusions about your toxicity and immoral behavior only on the basis of 3 last matches. FBI
In principle, this is correct, because if you get high karma, then in the future you will be tempted to become a toxic asshole, because you will understand that you have a certain amount of trust in the platform, and as a result you will not get banned for your terrible behavior.
RachelR: «He picks from left. Kuzya, screw you! Why are you running around there, you are an idiot. Damn, sit down on the coffins and watch the damn left wall.»
For so many years of playing on the platform, I had both the minimum and maximum FBI, and I didn't see any difference in gameplay.
The maximum sanction that is applied to us for toxicity is a ban for a day, for a couple of days, sometimes for a week. But as practice shows this does not affect people.
Well, he lost another game, lost some elo, had a fight with everyone around, got banned for a day and went to rest and restore morale.
A day later, having launched the game, he continues doing bullshit again and loses games to people.
Well, I have a concrete suggestion how to influence the players in such a way that they are not limited by outright lawlessness, but at the same time they are forced to be adequate in the game.
Let's think about what is our most precious resource on Face It? Of course, this is coveted elo! I suggest linking the FBI counter not to the last 3 matches played on the platform, but to the last 10 matches.
If in 10 matches, a person's FBI falls below the certain limit, then we impose sanctions on a person that will hit the most precious thing for him - his elo.
If karma falls below, for example, 800 points, then the account is limited on the amount of elo received during a certain number of matches, for example, for the next 5 games.
If a person loses one of these, if you can say so, "sanction games", then he loses not 25 elo, but, for example, 35.
If he wins his match within the framework of these 5 matches, then for the victory he is given not + 25 elo, but, for example, + 15 elo.
And just imagine how everyone will value their karma if they know that their inappropriate behavior will cause the loss of elo.
Yes, of course, a person can win all 5 of his sanctioned games, but he will also receive not conditional + 125 elo for it, but only 75 elo.
And if he loses all 5 matches, he will lose not the same 125 elo, but 175 elo!
Yes, of course, it is simply impossible to imagine such a thing now. Obviously, there will be a huge wave of displeasure, but judge for yourself, from whom will this displeasure come? From inadequate and toxic people?
Common, such players, in fact, do not carry any value for the platform, but in our matches an adequate atmosphere will finally be, because everyone will know that toxicity and throwing will cause consequences that will not be limited to some kind of ban for a day.
The consequences will be reflected in the coveted elo, that 99% of the audience of the platform literally pray for, including me. I am not an exception.
I just imagined what it would be like for me if such a punishment were applied to me, and I won't lie if I say I would think 10 times before going to the next match trash talking.

ENCOURAGEMENT OF CASUAL CS

Well, let's finally move on to the numbers, because, as we know, they do not lie and clearly show the problems that I will begin to talk about now. But at first, you need to know how we collected these statistics.
A participant of the challenge: «By the middle of the challenge, I wanted to drop it, because it was incredibly hard to play with random people.
But all my acquaintances, friends, supported me, told me not to give up. Because I went here for something. I continued. Finished.
I lost 600 elo and the only conclusion I can make is: you don't need to use any scripts until you get 3000 elo, nothing, you just have to go out and give one shot.»
I found 53 people who were tasked with playing 100 solo matches on premium Faceit in 2 weeks.
They had to exclude the 2 most popular maps from their map pool, Mirage and Dust2, and while playing these matches, they had to record certain data which I will refer to.
Only 16 people were able to reach the end of the challenge. Most of them left, because they simply could not withstand all the problems that I will tell you about today.
And I was really surprised that as many as 16 people were able to reach the end. I expected maximum 5 people who would finish the challenge.
You will find links to these iron guys in the description. Some of them will release additions to this text, thanks to which you will be able to find out firsthand all the problems that these guys faced.
https://www.twitch.tv/agaj https://www.twitch.tv/lavercs https://www.twitch.tv/pulushka https://www.twitch.tv/kayixn1 https://www.twitch.tv/ferx__ https://www.twitch.tv/noir262 https://t.me/keatzen https://t.me/s4nekk1m https://t.me/wA1n11 https://t.me/m9so666 https://vk.com/graynoff https://vk.com/dolphziggler1 https://vk.com/glebyiiika72 https://vk.com/rejectedcs https://www.instagram.com/sentsov_daniil
One of the most important bonuses of Faceit premium for which I personally buy a premium is the ability to choose the map on which you want to play.
Right now, without joking, write in the comments those who play free Faceit. How often is your request to ban Mirage or Dust2 ignored by randomly selected captains?
For some reason, I think this happens on an ongoing basis. In 70% cases they won't even listen to you and will pick one of the most popular maps in map pool.
And now just think about it. People spend money on premium in order to play the same popular maps.
Many of them will say that only on Mirage you can win the game solo, that only on Mirage random teammates will know at least the most elementary tactics, names of positions and grenades.
But after all, we have at least 7 maps in the competitive map pool in CS.
The guys in my challenge frankly suffered because their random teammates often, even if they had a lot of elo and really good statistics, turned out to be absolutely helpless on conditional Nuke.
A participant of the challenge: «When I see that Nuke is being picked, my heart stops. People pick Nuke, but they don't know a single grenade. They don't know how to play this map at all. But I got the most important thing from the challenge: I was convinced at my strong morality.»
I said that Faceit is a kind of springboard for esports if you remember.
But it seems to me that our springboard is broken, because instead of coaching well-rounded players it grows the gods of Mirage, blessed with 7 insta smokes in the window.
It looks like a 5x5 game has turned into a regular DM in a couple of years, because people don't have the motivation to learn something new.
A participant of the challenge: «There were 2 problems for me: there are practically no people who know how to play right, not flying +w and either win duels, or the round ends at 1:30. And the second is not full parties or new accounts, but people with high elo who stupidly do not know how to strafe, but have a huge self-esteem. It morally kills.»
The only thing they want, as I said before, is to find a strategy that will bring them the maximum win rate, up as much elo as possible, and give them the opportunity to get into the very coveted pro hub.
And I have acquaintances in FPL-C who shared their thoughts on this with me.
_immortal--: «Basically, people who make 40 frags on quals, who just can shoot, know some basic grenades, get into FPL-C. But in FPL-C you need to play with your teammates, communicate with people more, know more grenades. Unfortunately, most people don't know this. They come to this league and the olds, if I can say so, tell it all to them. Here begins a stormy activity: reports, complaints, etc.»
I wasn't lazy to analyze the top 20, just think about it, the TOP 20 players of the 51st season of the master league.
I.e., people who have at least 3500 elo, and who, judging by their elo, should know CS along and across.
But no! 19 of 20 players got all their crazy elo, win rate, statistics and a place among the top 20 players of the month got this by playing only two maps.
On average from 40% to 70% of their entire Face It experience is reduced to running a single Mirage, just as if they were running a conditional DM. stats
Faceit does not encourage the comprehensive development of players. Face It wants to make you find the next game as soon as possible. You do not need to think.
You need to press the "Play" button and quickly find a match on Mirage in 30 seconds.
Why does my challenge force people to explore new maps and get out of their comfort zone, while a platform that positions itself as a springboard into esports encourages casual players?
A participant of the challenge: «The challenge gave me boost due to the fact that I had to play on new maps that I had not played before. And in order not to lose my elo, I had to watch new demos, learn new tricks.»
I absolutely do not mind that newcomers and parties of friends played the maps that they want to play. No, I'm leading to another thought.
Why not to make something so that the player would justify his elo not only by the endless Mirage grind in a party of friends, but also by the ability to play non-default maps, which he will have to learn in the future anyway, if once he wants to start playing in a team at tournaments and leagues.
Why, for example, starting from 3000 elo do not remove the possibility of choosing map from people in the premium, and leave it only in the non-premium, where master league points will not be at stake, which ultimately affect getting into the coveted top 100 of the master league?
The search time for matches will be reduced, because there will be no need to select people for a specific map, and recognized tryharders will have to put up with a little discomfort in the game and will be forced to justify and constantly confirm their playing skills not only on idiotic Mirage.
A participant of the challenge: «The challenge is adequate, but there is no way to up elo in it. You are constantly playing against people who play their 3 main maps. That's it.»

SMURFING / BOOSTING / NEW ACCOUNTS

A couple of weeks ago Face It sent a notification to all players that from the end of February the platform will change its policy regarding account deactivation.
For me the problem of smurfing and new accounts became critically acute about a year and a half ago.
RachelR: «I played 3 games today. It's just classic Face It in all 3 matches in its pure form. 200 matches. 300 matches. 3800 elo. 3000 elo 3 idiots in a party + another new account 260 matches. It's just a trash. What kind of game is this? The 4th, damn, of March! Someone told me that Face It started to fight with new accounts! But no! Face It doesn't care of it at all. 4 premutes! What's it? Damn! Where am I?»
What is the problem of new accounts? If someone doesn't understand, a new account is not necessarily a booster or a smurf.
This concept appeared recently and its essence in the fact that a very large number of players desire to have as much elo as possible for the smallest number of matches that began to write requests to the Face It support with a request to deactivate their main account under various pretexts.
But in fact, I counted only 4 real reasons. First, people want an easy hype. What do I mean by this?
Listen, CS is not MMORPG, where skins and armor buffs decide. If you are a player, for example, who has 3500 elo, then starting to play on a new account your path will begin literally with 1000 elo.
You will be able to get your 3k elo back very quickly without any problems, because you haven't forgotten how to play having received a new account.
Most likely such a player will get these numbers for himself very quickly, in 200-300 matches, which, in a fair play, is achieved in at least 4-6k hours spent in CS.
People who pursue the goal of hype strive to achieve high elo in the shortest time, so that, as if from nowhere, a new young talent appears. Everything is really very simple and prosaic.
The second reason why people deactivate their accounts and create new ones is stats baiter.
I will tell you about this on my example. In the past, when my team Insilio wasn't that famous, for the selection of potential players, when we had problems with the roster, we chose people according to two main criteria: ELO and the general indicator of KD.
ELO is understandable. The approximate level of the player. And the total KD on the account shows how many frags the player does and if he is carry or not.
If a person has a lot of ELO, but his KD is 1.05-1.1, then we can say that yes, the player is fine, but not grabbing stars from the sky.
But if his KD is 1.5, or even more, then he clearly plays at a level above average and it makes sense to test him in the team.
I already told you at the beginning of the text that Face It does not have a clear comprehensive system of statistics on the platform itself for each individual player, so I assure you, most scouts and potential teams are primarily focused on ELO and the general KD of a person.
I have been playing on Face It for about 5 years. When I first started my average KD on my account was 1.32. It decreased and decreased.
The smallest total KD on my account was 1.06. Now it is 1.1. To get a pathetic 4 hundredths of KD statistics I had to spend more than 1000 matches on the platform.
Now listen carefully. Let's imagine me as 4000 elo player with 5000 matches on my account.
But, unfortunately, when I was started my way on Face It it was difficult for me to have good statistics.
But let's imagine I really started to train hard and now I am an excellent aimer.
I will try to apply to the same Insilio when they need to find a player, but out of a whole bunch of the same players I will be at the very bottom of the list for a potential test in the team.
Probably, they won't even test me in the roster, just because they decide that I'm not grabbing stars from the sky and not being able to win a game solo.
That is why a significant percentage of people deactivate their accounts, create new ones, and their main goal of the game is total baiting for the sake of the greatest KD and personal statistics, so that in the future, they will be the tidbit for a potential new team.
The third reason for deactivating accounts is boosting. Just look at the prices for the instant sale of accounts with certain ELO from one service. service stats
These are prices for instant sale, i.e., in theory, such accounts can be sold much more expensive.
These were three main reasons why a huge number of people in recent years have started deactivating their main accounts and creating new ones.
A participant of the challenge: «It is difficult to describe my emotions about this challenge. But the fact that I haven't played Face It since the 25 of December says a lot. Complete demotivation, I completely don't want to play this game, because new people come to Face It with new accounts, purchased or non-purchased. They don’t care about the game. When you are really motivated and trying to win, they lose rounds, lose games. I lost about 30% of the games because people just threw games. Not because they don't know how to play, but because they have new accounts, they play on smurfs, they don't give a damn at all. Complete disappointment in the platform, because if I don't report a player = he won’t get ban. But even with reports they may not be banned. I've been reporting throwers throughout the challenge, reported-reported-reported and only a few people were banned.»
I wasn't lazy to analyze the top 200 players of 51th season of the master league. Just think about it, among the top 200 players of the season on the entire platform is only 25, i.e. 12.5%, are outright smurfs and new accounts.
If you only knew how tired I was clicking on every account in this top.
And even I, without any deep search, found so many dishonest players.
And after all, I analyzed only the master league, i.e. players who have only 10 levels of Face It and who have 3000 elo or more.
I didn't pay attention to accounts with more than 1k matches on the account, although among them you can find a sufficient number of people who had their first 4k elo, for example, for 300 matches, which, again, is impossible with fair play.
The guys who helped me to collect statistics for this text calculated the % of matches in which new accounts were played against them or for them.
And now just try to realize the scale of the problem. Of the 1,600 matches played in total by all the guys, 293 matches were played AGAINST THEM by people who have 150-200 matches on their accounts, but have already had 3000 elo or more.
This is 18% of the total number of matches. And all this is only at 10 level, i.e. the maximum level of Face It.
The win rate in such games was a miserable 40%, which clearly demonstrates that it is possible to win such opponents, of course.
In 9% of the matches, new accounts were in parties of my challenge participants.
If you add up these data, it turns out that in 27% of games at 10 level, i.e. the maximum level of Face It, in almost all of your matches there will be a new account in the lobby who pursues one of the goals that I described above.
In fact, this is every 3-4 match on the platform.
But do not forget that a new account starts his journey from the lowest levels of the platform, i.e. along the way he absolutely meets no resistance from ordinary beginners.
The news with which I started this blog, saying that Face It has finally started the fight against smurfing, in fact, does not carry anything encouraging.
If Face It decides to fight this problem, then it will lose 27% of active online on the platform. And what do you think, will the site do this? I think not. They'll just get scared.

DEAD BALANCE OF MATCHES

We have just dealt with the reasons of boosting. But the premium Face It combines several factors at once, which multiply by zero all the interest of the game on this platform.
At the beginning I said that we take the premium hoping that since we pay money for the game, we expect from the platform honest, equal and fair recruiting of both teammates and enemies.
But boosting is superimposed on the second problem, namely an inadequate balance.
Smurfs never play alone, because it is simply impossible. No matter how strong you are, but without cheats you are unlikely to be able to win 80% of matches alone even making 50 frags in each game.
Starting from about 1800-2000 elo, like it or not, but it will be difficult for you to win the game 1 vs 5, so boosters always play in parties.
Premium Face It gives people the right to play in a party of maximum of 3 people. In a free Face It, you can play in a party of 5 people.
Of course, I'm nobody. I have no right to forbid people to play with friends. Moreover, CS is a team game.
But each of us has moments when friends can't keep us company or we can't find a stable party for the game. But we want to play. We want to develop in the game, up elo, etc. So what? Don't play at all?
Of course not. We launch the game for solo playing and in all esports team games with a large online, (and Face It, obviously, has more than 100k people online daily), there are either two separate ratings - solo and team - or we, as a solo player, should be able to play in a party consisting of such the same solo players.
But on Face It such a ranking simply does not exist. The guys in my challenge played 550 matches against parties of 3 players out of 1600 matches played. This is 34% of all matches.
316 matches, i.e. 20%, turned out to be those in which a solo player was playing against premates 2+2+1 .
The win rate against a party of 3 premates was 44%. Win rate vs 2+2+1 party was 49%.
866 matches out of 1600, i.e. 54% for a solo player, turned out to be against parties of friends.
In all cases a solo player loses in 47% cases. I.e. by starting the game solo, you are more likely to lose such a match, which is unconditionally confirmed by the figures we have received.
For example, a guy with the nickname Noir, out of 100 of his games played 60 had had played against parties of 3 friends.
A participant of the challenge: «After losing about 400 elo for the entire challenge I felt tilt, because I was wondering why I couldn't win. Was I so weak? And when I started compiling a table of the number of players against me in the party, new accounts – I realized that I didn't have a chance to win in 60% of the games, because there were often lobbies when 3 + 2 were against me and everyone was solo for me. And it was Inferno. It's impossible to win.»
And I ask you not to forget that all this happened on non-default maps. It was not on Mirage or Dust 2, but on difficult maps like Nuke or Vertigo, where you need an excellent communication and understanding of the map.
And it's not for me to tell you how such matches being played. If on a non-default map, for example, on Vertigo, you get into a team consisting of solo warriors and a party of 3 friends is against you, then usually happens next.
А party of friends for CT takes the whole A-site, as well as part of Mid, i.e. 2 \ 3 of the map.
Since they are friends and they are not playing the most popular map, then, most likely, they somehow learnt at least the most primitive scripts, grenades and peeks for flashes.
Solo team often can't agree on anything except how to run + W, while they are literally being destroyed under double peek under pop-flashes and perfect communication in TS.
You know this very well and have felt it on your own skin. And now I will finish this problem completely.
Of the 550 matches in which our guys played against parties of 3 friends, in 257 matches there was a new account in this party, i.e. either smurfs or fools wanting to get good statistics for themselves.
And win rate in these 257 matches was, drum roll, 37%.
Boosting and the system of matching parties against solo players are inseparably linked layers of our iceberg. All these problems can be solved literally with one click of a finger.
Specifically, by adding SOLO SEARCH, which I and a huge number of players have been asking for for 4 years.
But as far as I know, Face It will hide behind the fact that they don't want to force people to play in isolation from their friends.
It is with friendship that they will cover up the colossal problem of their match selection, and instead of what we have all been waiting for for so long, I am sure that soon we will see 1x1, 3x3, unranked 2x2, etc. Oh no! 2x2 is already there!
A participant of the challenge: «Man, out of 100 matches in 60 I was forced to play against 3 people in a party, who sweat for every round. It's just impossible to win them if everyone is solo in my team. Moreover, players who always play solo and are used to such lobbies give up, mute everyone and just don't try to play, wanting to lose faster to start the next game. Starting the game solo – I want to play solo, and not against the guys who are abusing the selection to get into FPL-C.»

DELIBERATE PITTING OF PEOPLE

I have already tried to reach Face It 3 years ago. My complaints were about similar problems as now.
The lack of solo search, dishonest match selection, abusing elo and league points, karma, the toxicity of people, etc. But one of my main complaints was the unfair system of accrual elo.
RachelR: «3 people: 3600 elo, 3500 elo, 3200 elo – all 3 in the party. And I have 3 in the party, one of which has 7 LVL, one has barely 10 LVL, and one has 9 lvl. 5K matches – 70% win rate. It's impossible to win. It's just unreal. I'll applause this selection system. It’s perfect, it's fantastic! Thank you, Face It :)»
But, as it turned out, this system was perfect. If earlier in game against a party of 3 premates, who at that time had a lot of elo, then loosing this game I was losing only 3-5 elo, and those parties of friends, on the contrary, received only 5-10 elo for a victory.
Obviously, I was losing 29 out of 30 such matches, but I also was losing little elo. A year ago, Face It started to give some inadequate balance.
Now we have all the matches at +25 and -25 elo. It looks great on paper. All matches are equal.
And let's imagine that you and I are lucky. We launched another match on conditional Nuke, everyone in our team is solo, our opponents also play only solo, which is already a miracle, as we understood from the points above.
But apart from that, no one has new accounts and smurfs either in our team or in the opposite team. All the guys are honest and friendly. In 37% of cases you will be thrown into such a lobby.
The picture is painfully familiar to the guys playing on about 1900 elo and to people who have 3500, isn't it?
As we know, Face It makes lobbies for the next matches based on the overall average elo of the team.
If there is a 4k elo player in the lobby, then he needs to be equalized with a couple of players with a conditional 8-9 level.
It's just a catastrophic difference in skill, and it's one thing if it happens on conditional Mirage, where everyone knows at least the most primitive things, and now imagine what would happen if such a selection would be happened on Nuke?
In one team, we have a huge difference in skill and understanding of the game between the players. In the other team, in general, everything is average. For a 4k elo player 2600-2800 elo guys are not something scary and complicated.
They are noobs for him. But for levels 8-9 it feels like the finalists of the Major, whose elo is as much as 1000 points higher. balance
Such a match will come down to the fact that either a 4k elo player makes 40 kills without overtime and wins the game solo, or loses it no matter how hard he tries, because often the match is being played 3 against 7.
This is exactly what the deliberate pitting of players is. 4k tryharder who came to this huge elo in an honest way without abuse and other shit, which we talked about above, spent more than 10k hours on the game, obviously, not to babysit, in fact, with newcomers in his team
A participant of the challenge: «In short, everything is fine, but I'm angry that people play, e.g., 3500 elo with low lvl, with lvl 7. You get idiots in your team who don't do anything at all because of the balance. Well, the balance is simple.. in short, there is no balance. Just numbers and that's it.»
He pursues the goal of the 4th feature of premium, namely to become better and become PRO.
But how can he become a PRO player if no one in his team knows the elementary wall of smokes on the street?
Almost every match eventually results in a conflict in which one tries like a demon and cannot win the game solo, and the other suffers from the fact that he does not succeed because, at the moment, he has the low level of individual skill.
A beginner is simply not ready to play against people whose elo is a whole thousand points higher than his own. I can't characterize it nothing but deliberately pitting people against each other.
And all these high-flown quotes like, "for weak players, this is an invaluable experience of playing against stronger opponents," you can shove in your ass.
With the same success I suggest that the second graders, who have just come to the boxing section, immediately to put in sparring against the men of the masters of sports. Why not? Let them gain experience, judging by this logic.
A participant of the challenge: «About Face It balance. I think after the company was sold to the new owners, they were faced with the task of removing games for +1 elo and -50 elo, which they partially coped with. And at some period we did have 4k average elo lobby, but the game was being searched for a very long time. I got the top 2 of Russia. But it couldn't go on for so long, because matches were being searched for 30 minutes reaching up to an hour. And in non-prem with friends we could not find games at all. And in order to stay with the concept of all games with 25 elo they decided to balance matches with the yellow levels. This, of course, made the gameplay much more complicated. But in general, if you are really strong, then you will continue winning, despite the fact that you often have to play 3 against 7.»
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2023.03.31 18:58 weatherbot5000 [Megathread] Central and Southern US Severe Weather Discussion, Friday, March 31, 2023

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a High Risk for severe weather for Friday, March 01, 2023. As of 0100 UTC (20:00, Central Daylight Time) the forecast includes this summary:
A severe-weather outbreak continues this evening across a large portion of the Mississippi Valley. Multiple strong tornadoes have occurred, and long track storms remain likely. A violent tornado will be possible within the High Risk area. Swaths of intense damaging wind gusts along with very large hail are expected as well.

Storm Prediction Center forecasts:

Please avoid rapidly refreshing SPC pages, they can struggle under heavy load on days like today
Latest risk maps (as of 0100 UTC, 20:00 CDT):
Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches:
Tornado Watch 100: portions of Southeastern Indiana; Northern Kentucky; Western Ohio
Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible; Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible; Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Tornado Watch 99: portions of Southeastern Arkansas; Northern and central Louisiana; Central and western Mississippi; A small part of east Texas
Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible; Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible; Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Tornado Watch 98: portions of East-central and southeastern Illinois; Western and central Indiana; Western and central Kentucky; Extreme southwestern Lower Michigan; Lake Michigan
Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible; Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely; Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 97: portions of Northwestern Alabama; Northern Mississippi; Western and Middle Tennessee
Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely; Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely; Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Tornado Watch 94: portions of Much of Arkansas; Southern Illinois; Western Kentucky; Southern Missouri; Northwest Mississippi; West Tennessee; Northeast Texas
Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely; Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely; Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Mesoscale Discussions:
MD 0421: TORNADO WATCH 97...99..., northern Mississippi
SUMMARY...Severe risk continues. Tornado environment is becoming more favorable across northern Mississippi.
MD 0420: TORNADO WATCH 97..., western Tennessee
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues. Potential for large hail and a few tornadoes.
MD 0419: TORNADO WATCH 98..., Eastern Illinois...Indiana...Western and Central Kentucky
SUMMARY...A severe threat will continue over the next few hours across eastern Illinois and Indiana southward into western Kentucky. Tornadoes, wind damage and large hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Weather watch issuance could be necessary later this evening to the east of WW 98 in parts of far eastern Indiana and western Ohio.

Alternate links for further information

Live updates
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I am a bot built and run by wazoheat; if something looks wrong it's his fault, yell at him.
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2023.03.31 18:00 LabB0T Weekly r/homelabsales Summary - 2023-03-31

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2023.03.31 17:03 Fenix_FluxIn 2000 XJ Advice - See Comments

2000 XJ Advice - See Comments submitted by Fenix_FluxIn to CherokeeXJ [link] [comments]