I don't know how this happened but I got the thumbnail to show up in Portrait mode on the YouTube App... I hope Daisy doesn't haunt anyone's dreams tonight...

Okay, the title might be just a little bit exaggerated. Let me explain.
In MCC, game order plays an important factor into the overall score of the event. The later the game is played, the more worthy it is coins-wised. It was designed so that the event isn't already decided by the 4th or 5th game. Combined with the voting system where some games may not be played, this system has both, sent team with a good game order into Dodgebolt, and kick them out of Dodgebolt because of a bad game order.
Ranboo, one of many MCC participants, is most widely known in the community, to have played a lot of MCCs, without ever reaching the final arena. He has gotten 5 3rd places, some of it was due to very unfortunate circumstances, and that includes the game order.
And so I present my quest. I will calculate the score of every possible game orders there are. Then I will compile those result, and find out, what percentages of universes has a version of Ranboo where he has reached at least 1 dodgebolt?

1. What am I doing?

So, like I said, I will find out how many universes does Ranboo get into Dodgebolt. But alongside that, I will also be collecting some datas from each MCCs, just to see for each event, how many universes each teams reach dodgebolt.
Some key notes here:

• "How many universes" is just a dumb way to say "How many different game orders does team X reach Dodgebolt".
• I will do this for every Season 2 MCCs, canon and non-canon, and anything in between.
• I will calculate the scores for every combinations of games, including games that were skipped. (Except for some cases, I will talk about those later)
• For a tie between 2nd and 3rd, I will be using the official Noxcrew method, where whoever was leading before will win the tie.

These "alternate universes" follow these rules:

• For an event, how a game plays out is the exact same in all universe. A Build Mart game 1 in this universe vs a Build Mart finale won't differ in stats. A fire alarm during PKT in this event also happens in another universe (provided that said universe doesn't skip it)
• For skipped games, I will use the Season 2 average of each player as a substitute. For teams that had to sub a player out mid-event, I will still only use the original player's stat. So just imagine there is an universe where in MCC15, Pete still subbed out after game 4 but still somehow managed to play Build Mart at game 7 (and then subbed out again).
• I will not do the stats for skipped games for most non-canon events. Why? Because most of the competitors are new and I have no stats to based off of.
• Not all players have the average for a game though. I will mention if I used something else for a missing stat.

2. How many different game orders are there?

Let x be the number of games available in said event. The formula to calculate the number of different game orders is:

x * (x-1)C2 * (x-3)*C2 * (x-5)C2 * (x-7) 

Keep in mind, game 2 and 3, 4 and 5, 6 and 7 has the same multiplier as each other, so swapping them doesn't change anything.
The number of different game orders, from now on, will be called the number of different universes for that event.
For an 8-game event: 5040 universes
For an 9-game event: 45360 universes
For an 10-game event: 226800 universes

MCC14

Let's start with the first event of Season 2, MCC14. This one is nice to do, since it doesn't have an extra game that is skipped. The competition for dodgebolt was really close too, with at one point there were 4 teams fighting neck-in-neck for 2 spots.
So, how many universes do Purple, or Red reach Dodgebolt?
MCC14
In all 5040 universes, Blue reached DB 100% of the time. And for the other slot, pretty much only Aqua and Purple was near it after one point. Overall, Aqua reached DB in many more universes compared to Purple.
It is close between all universes too! Taking the differences between 2nd and 3rd place in all universes, the average of those differences is only 426.6 coins, with only 5.3% of all universes having this differential larger than 1000 coins.
There were 2 universes where a tie between 2nd and 3rd happens between Aqua and Purple. Aqua goes through by the tiebreaker on both universes. I won't go too deep on the ties, but if there are anything cool to mention I will definitely write them out.
0.317% of all universes has Red in dodgebolt. One of them has the game order of:

HITW, AR, BB, BSABM, TGTTOSAWAF, SKB, PKT, SG 

MCCP21

Originally, I wasn't gonna do non-canon events. But then I decided to do it anyway, but, I will not calculate the scores for the skipped game(s). There are just too many new people that I don't think I can fairly give them a fair score. That being said, this event doesn't have a skipped game, but I do want to mention that first, MCC27 will not have Build Mart considered.
MCCP21
Pink reached DB more times than Orange (although not by much). There are 8 universes (0.16% of all) where the coins difference between 2nd and 3rd is less than or equal to 2 coins, and we live in one of them. One tie happens, this game order has Orange and Pink tied, and Pink proceed:

AR, SB, BB, HITW, PKT, BSABM, TGTTOSAWAF, SG 

If you are wondering how BB is played before PKT (the fire alarm), just imagine Phil subbed in for Wilbur so that he can go out and buy a kebab or something idk your imagination.

MCC15

The first event with Ranboo, and oh my this is rough to look at.
MCC15
Before talking about Pink, let's talk about the others first. Yellow Yaks, at 19.231%, is the team with the lowest percentage of universes where they reached DB, that actually reached DB in the current world.
Behind them, Blue Bats, got 13.29%. Had the final game been Build Mart instead of Survival Games, they would be first, ahead of Pink Parrots.
And now to Pink. At 77.826%, 35302 out of 45360 universes, the MCC15 Pink Parrots is the team with the highest percentage overall that did not made it into DB. The best of both worlds. Like I mentioned earlier, if the final game was Build Mart things would be very different. Great start for the Ranboo curse.
Let's not forget about Red too, they had a very impressive event, only around 10% of the time do they miss out on DB.
Purple Pandas is interesting as well. There are 5 universes (0.011%) where they made it into DB. A game order like PKT, SKB, TGTTOS, BB, HOTW, SOT, BSABM, AR saw them going in ahead a Blue just barely.

MCC16

Used RTGame's S1 + MCC27 stats.
(Note that this event has 10 games, so the amount of universes there are is much larger)
MCC16
I expected the domination of Purple and Pink. In my mind Lime is in DB way more than just 19% though. Same goes with Orange and Yellow for me. What I did not expect the most, is Aqua. My head must be made out of void, cause I forgot how good they did back then (now they sounds even more scarier than then). If instead of SoT, the finale was HITW, Aqua would actually made in. (at least, with the type of stats I used).
If the final game was Battle Box, no changes.
If the final game was Hole in the Wall, like mentioned, Purple and Aqua make it in.

MCC17

Used KarlJacobs's S1 + P22 stats.
Even though one spot for DB was set in stone for Orange, the battle for the 2nd spot was actually very competitive.
https://preview.redd.it/dpm42mtxlxna1.png?width=1266&format=png&auto=webp&s=91fbd87a8882b7758dfe377466a3bb35014cee22
Orange plays DB in 99.524% of all universes. They both did really well and got a favorable game selection. Most universes where they don't make it into DB have BM, AR replaced by PKT and BB, where they were played late.
For the 2nd spot in DB, Ranboo's team has the highest percentage out of all the others, an impressive feat for a team underrated by many. But still, they lost out to Pink in this universe. 4 of Red, Yellow, Lime and Pink were pretty close by numbers for the 2nd spot, with Cyan and Purple having a minor share.
Here's an universe with Cyan in DB: (they have much superior stats for BB and PKT compared to the others)

HITW, SKB, TGTTOSAWAF, GR, SOT, AR, BB, PKT 

And here's one with Purple in:

HITW, SKB, BSABM, TGTTOSAWAF, BB, AR, PKT, SOT 

If BB or PKT was played as a finale, Orange and Lime made it into DB.

MCCR

Remember how I said I wouldn't do the stat for the skipped game. This apply to Rising.
MCCR
Not much to say here tbh. The average differential is 2527 coins. All universes have 2nd lead 3rd by more than 1720 coins. Needless to say this was not a close MCC.

MCC18

Used S1 stats for Gizzy and Mefs.
Ummm aktually it is not Pink it is Fuchsia becuase it is a halloween event... 🤓
MCC18
Different from the previous time Ranboo got 3rd, this time his team doesn't have the highest or 2nd highest number of universes. These go to Yellow, who dominated a lot of games, and Lime, who with the addition of Fundy really made them into a really fun and chaotic team (with a drunk fox).
That being said, 32.4% is not a small number. That is still 1/3 of all universes where they made Dodgebolt. Behind them is Orange and Pink.
Any final game will still have Yellow and Lime in Dodgebolt.

MCCAS

Used Bitzel, Mini S1 stats.
All-Stars is the only exception to the previous rule I make. It's only 1 game this time, and all players here have already played in an event before.
MCCAS
Not suprised about Red, although I really though Blue was gonna be higher. The entire event was mostly dominated by Red and Yellow though.
Nothing changes if the final game is changed.

MCC19

Used Snifferish's PKT average for Slimecicle
One of the balanced events of all time. Take a guess on what the percentage of Teal will be.
MCC19
At 99.998%, Teal only missed out of Dodgebolt in only 1 single universe. An universe with the game order of:

BB,TGTTOS,PKT,BSABM,SKB,HITW,SOT,SG 

... where they got third behind Emerald by 92 coins. First place in that universe was Cerulean.
The chase for the 2nd spot was between 3 teams: Red, Emerald, and Cerulean. Cerulean popped off in a lot of games, usually much better than their opponents, which result in a much higher percentage. Ranboo got 4th in this one (phew), reaching DB 24.215% of all universes.
If the final game was Parkour Tag, Teal and Emerald made it into Dodgebolt.
An universe with Red in Dodgebolt:

BSABM,HITW,BB,GR,SKB,TGTTOSAWAF,SOT,PKT 

MCC20

Another MCC where Ranboo got third. After Game 7, the run for dodgebolt was between 3 teams, Yellow, Aqua, and Green, and they were neck and neck between each other. Two crazy performances in SoT by Yellow and Aqua sealed the deal for them. But how close was it.
Well judging by other multiverse, not that close.
MCC20
Yeah... the entire event was dominated by these two teams. Green only got into Dodgebolt 1% of the time. A universe with this game order:

PKT, GR, RSR, TGTTOSAWAF, AR, BB, SKB 

sees them getting 2nd, ahead of Yellow by 37 coins. Also, 80% of the time the gap between 2nd and 3rd was over 1000 coins, and the average differential is 1780 coins, so it is even less close than that.
If the final game was Battle Box, there is likely a chance for Green to break through, but judging by stats alone, Yellow would still be in, the only difference being Yellow getting 2nd.

MCC21

Used MCCP22 for Snifferish Build Mart
MCC21 was the first event where we see the trend of event getting very balanced. While this is definitely not the most balanced event, with the fight for dodgebolt similar to last event, being 3 teams fighting for two spots, the numbers for MCC21 is much better.
MCC21
A three-way fight between Yellow, Cyan and Blue, with the percentages being very close to each other, with Blue having a much better percentage overall. All of their overall percentages are larger than 60%, meaning that any 1 of them missing out would be due to bad luck or bad game order (for this universe, Yellow).
This universe has Yellow and Cyan going through, with Yellow in 1st.

SG, HITW, GR, RSR, SOT, SKB, BSABM, PKT 

If the final game was Big Sales At Build Mart, Blue and Yellow made it into Dodgebolt. To think it was a coin toss...

MCC22

Build Mart: Used MCCR and MCCAS for Blushi, Skeppy average for Tina,
The one where Captain broke his curse. There were a lot of back and forth during the 2nd half, but after game 7 it was pretty much in Red and Pink' hands. And it shows:
MCC22
Pink's performance is incredibly impressive, reaching DB in 96% of all universe. Red also did really well, getting in 87% of the time. The remaining odds are split between Lime, Cyan and Orange. All of these teams did good enough to have some chances, but have some hiccups during the last stretch. Ranboo's Cyan got 5%.
If the final game was Big Sales At Build Mart, Lime and Red made it into dodgebolt. Now which one do you guess got 3rd in this cursed universe? Captain or Ranboo? Answer: Captain!

MCCP22

MCCP22
Yeah I don't have much to say really

MCC23

The one where Captain got his curse back. This is an event where it felt like a lot of teams were playing equally as good, they all have games where they absolutely popped off, with Red and Orange popped off the most, and benefited the most from the Meltdown finale.
MCC23
Literally the majority of teams had, at least 4 universes where they made it into Dodgebolt. Red and Orange made it half the time. Blue did really well both at the start and near the end, but the Dodgebolt finale really hurt them.
Aqua, having 42.372% of all universes where they made dodgebolt, only got 6th in this universe. I think that is the worst luck I've seen so far, apart of maybe Pink 15.
Purple underperformed a bit, but still managed an 11% rate. Lime and Yellow both have ups and down, with Yellow having their ups at the first half, and Lime having their at the 2nd half. They did not break 1%, but it is insane nonetheless.
If the final game was Big Sales At Build Mart, Blue and Red made it into Dodgebolt. To show you how shaked up this one change is, here is the top 5:

1. Blue Bats
2. Red Rabbits
3. Aqua Axolotls
4. Purple Pandas
5. Orange Ocelots

Meltdown game 8 is ridiculous.
This universe has Blue and Yellow in Dodgebolt:

RSR, SG, GR, PKT, BSABM, AR, TGTTOSAWAF, SKB 

This universe has Orange and Lime in Dodgebolt:

AR, GR, SKB, SG, PKT, RSR, BSABM, MD 

This universe has Red and Purple in Dodgebolt:

SG, AR, GR, SKB, TGTTOSAWAF, MD, BSABM, RSR 

This universe has Blue and Aqua in Dodgebolt (of many):

SG, AR, GR, RSR, TGTTOSAWAF, SKB, PKT, BSABM 

MCC24

Used PearlescentMoon's Grid Runners average for Skeppy
I remember this being one of the event I saw.
MCC24
Orange was strong in every games that event. Yellow, Purple and Blue all have pretty much an equal chance of making into DB imo, Blue was unlucky that their best games weren't played late, and Purple was in the lead until a sub-par SoT game 8. Which leaves Yellow who were the most consistent to take the spot on this universe.
Cyan, while wasn't as good as the other 4 overall, did exceptionally well in games like SoT. Their lead in those games mean that they have 30 universes (0.067%) being in Dodgebolt. Here's one:

SKB, MD, BB, RSR, AR, HITW, GR, SOT 

If the final game was Grid Runners, Orange and Purple made it into Dodgebolt.

MCC25

This event is similar to the end of the first half, with one team (Green) dominating, and a lot of teams fighting for the other spot. And a lot there is:
​
MCC25
Green got in much more frequently compared to others, although their percentage is not the highest among the strongest. Both Purple and Yellow were fighting in the real event, and in the multiverse it seems that they make it in a lot, and which team being in was nearly a coin toss. Behind are Cyan and Red, who were also neck-in-neck during the final game among the others. Last is Aqua Axolotls, they had really bad games like Survival Games, but they did do great in other games, giving them a 3.38%.
If the final game was Sands Of Time, Green and Cyan made it into Dodgebolt. Poor H, surely this will be the only time SoT gets skipped :clueless:
This universe has Green and Aqua in Dodgebolt:

BB, MD, GR, TGTTOSAWAF, PKT, HITW, SOT, AR 

MCC26

The other balanced event.
​
MCC26
Purple was the dominating team after all, or maybe the event was just too balanced they did well enough to be ahead of others. 2nd place Aqua Abominations had 40%, with their best game being skipped and they still managed to do really well in games like MD or RSR. The rest is kinda distributed evenly. Pink, Yellow, Cyan was in the race before game 8. Opposite of Aqua, Cyan last two games were not their best game, so it is likely the reason why their overall percentage is so low. Blue got their ups but their downs were kinda rough. I'm surprised that Green doesn't make it in in any universe.
If the final game was Sands Of Time, Cyan and... Purple made it into dodgebolt? Was I wrong this whole time? Was Krtzyy the sand-master all along?
This event is the most-balanced event, coins-differential-wise. The average is only 337 coins. Less than 1.5% of universes have a coin differential of 1000 or higher.
Anyway, here's an universe with Blue in DB:

PKW, HITW, RSR, BB, SKB, TGTTOSAWAF, SOT, MD 

MCC27

Remember the rule? Yeah I didn't include Build Mart in here. Feel free to up the percentage of Red in DB by how much you want it to be.
​
MCC27
Purple is 100%, to the surprise of no one. Even without BM, Red still gets into DB 57.1% of the times, which is really unfortunate that they missed out in the real event by so little. Many respects to Cyan, with 39%, they weren't predicted to be high up but they made DB. Blue was also in the run, though they did not do as good as Red or Cyan to catch up with them. They did came close though.
If the final game was Big Sales At Build Mart, I don't have the stats but probably Purple and Red.
Here's a game order that would send Blue to DB:

TGTTOSAWAF, AR, MD, BB, GR, HITW, PKT, SOT 

MCC28

Used MCCR for beky, MCC27 for impulse
The last one. This event isn't very balanced compared to the previous 3, but it's Christmas.
​
MCC28
Ranboo got 3rd with Red, probably the least likely 3rd ever. Red Reindeers was not weak, simply the teams above them were much stronger. They dominated the two team games, which gave them a small 0.351%, mainly due to TGTTOS not being the strongest, and a lot of games where they did good the other teams did insanely better (Battle Box, Meltdown, Sky Battle).
Green played strong throughout the entire event, and Teal played decently with some small hiccups along the line (Gluon).
Ginger Breadmen, with 70.090%, is the team with the 2nd highest percentages of DB Universes that did not made it into DB in the real event. They popped off in so many games, just that the last 3 games were among their weakest, very unfortunate. They also missed out on TGTTOS, one of Purpled' strong games too.
Purple Penguins were predicted to be very strong when Tubbo joined in, and although 10% sounds really low, that is still a very good number, in an event where the top teams are really stacked.
If the final game was To Get To The Other Side And Whack A Fan, Green and Ginger would be in Dodgebolt.
This universe has Red in Dodgebolt:

RSR, PKW, BB, AR, TGTTOSAWAF, GR, SKB, SOT 

This universe has Purple in Dodgebolt:

RSR, PKW, AR, GR, MD, SKB, SOT, TGTTOSAWAF 

How many universes are there where Ranboo reached DB at least 1?

Well, I cannot give you an exact number, what I can do is give you the percentage of universes where he reached DB at least 1.
That number is (drum rolls).... around 95.15%. This universe is in the 4.85% where god forbids Ranboo to shoot an arrow.
Ranboo is just way too unlucky. A lot of the teams he was on had like 25%+ dodgebolt rate, with the most ridiculous being Pink 15's 78%.

Conclusion

i do not know why i do this. have fun with it i guess?
also i will do this with every events going forward, likely with more graphics than excel sheets.
Credits:

• Me for doing the calculation
• Sheep for the first half stats
• The Transcript for the second half stats